Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W4 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 8.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 16.0 | 10.6 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Michael Penix Jr.QB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 15.2 | 18.7 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | 6.6 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Emeka EgbukaWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 16.7 | 20.1 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jayden HigginsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | 9.4 | +6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jaylin NoelWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | 1.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ollie Gordon IIRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | 1.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tez JohnsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | 2.3 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | LeQuint Allen Jr.RB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | 1.7 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Gunnar HelmTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 3.1 | 2.2 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tory HortonWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 6.9 | 2.0 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Cam WardQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | 4.5 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 4.4 | 3.2 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 7.6 | 12.6 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Adam ThielenWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 8.7 | 0.0 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Demarcus RobinsonWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Kendrick BourneWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 5.0 | 7.8 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 2.8 | 1.9 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Russell GageWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 17.5 | 15.8 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Trishton JacksonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 9.2 | 11.1 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 12.7 | 19.3 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 11.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 11.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 18.3 | 12.5 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | 0.5 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jack StollTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 10.1 | +9.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Feleipe FranksTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 8.1 | 7.9 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Mac JonesQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 16.4 | 13.3 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 7.8 | 1.4 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 6.0 | 6.7 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 9.1 | 10.7 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 17.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Skyy MooreWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | 2.0 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 21.6 | 16.1 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 10.5 | 5.4 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jacob CowingWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | 11.7 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 0.0 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ricky PearsallWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 10.9 | 19.7 | +8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Moliki MatavaoTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 14.8 | 25.0 | +10.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Joe FlaccoQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 14.1 | 14.6 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Randall CobbWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 16.3 | 26.3 | +10.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brandin CooksWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 8.2 | 4.0 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 15.5 | 20.8 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 0.4 | 2.6 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | DeVante ParkerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 7.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.6 | 0.3 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Darren WallerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 5.7 | 0.0 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Phillip DorsettWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyler LockettWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 7.5 | 4.8 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 6.6 | 6.7 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nick VannettTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.4 | 4.6 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chris MooreWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 21.7 | 30.1 | +8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jacoby BrissettQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 3.5 | 12.2 | +8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 15.5 | 12.5 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 5.8 | 3.2 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Matt BreidaRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.9 | 2.4 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 5.2 | 5.5 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 10.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cooper RushQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 11.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.8 | 4.3 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 11.2 | 18.6 | +7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse