Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W5 | Jayden HigginsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | 7.2 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jaylin NoelWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | 9.8 | +8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Elic AyomanorWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 11.1 | 3.8 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | DJ GiddensRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 2.2 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 6.1 | 2.4 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tez JohnsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | 9.9 | +7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ulysses Bentley IVRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 6.4 | 0.0 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 6.9 | 2.4 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tory HortonWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | 12.9 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Cam WardQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 11.6 | 8.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Chimere DikeWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 4.7 | 3.7 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jack BechWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | 5.7 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 7.8 | 6.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 7.2 | 4.7 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Mason TaylorTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 8.5 | 17.7 | +9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.3) | 17.6 | 27.4 | +9.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 16.8 | 15.6 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 7.0 | 17.7 | +10.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Sterling ShepardWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 8.9 | 4.0 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 5.2 | 3.4 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 11.1 | 11.9 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tim PatrickWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 0.9 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 11.6 | 6.6 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 13.2 | 5.6 | −7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 7.6 | 5.7 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Justin WatsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Braxton BerriosWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Christian KirkWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 9.5 | 5.0 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 16.1 | 18.9 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 15.3 | 16.1 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Steven SimsWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Cody ThompsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 16.6 | 16.1 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 7.9 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Marquez CallawayWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 4.7 | 8.7 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 15.4 | 11.9 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Dyami BrownWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 8.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Simi FehokoWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Feleipe FranksTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 4.4 | 15.8 | +11.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 12.4 | 5.1 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 7.8 | 18.0 | +10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3) | 14.7 | 11.7 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 14.9 | 19.5 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 9.9 | 12.8 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 7.8 | 8.6 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 7.0 | 1.4 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 7.3 | 3.9 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Thomas OdukoyaTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 18.6 | 13.0 | −5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 7.5 | 4.5 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 8.5 | 5.9 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 3.7 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Elijah CooksWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | 2.9 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 1.3 | 2.7 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Rakim JarrettWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ryan MillerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 19.8 | 17.1 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Trey PalmerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 24.6 | 36.0 | +11.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 16.4 | 18.4 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 15.9 | 25.5 | +9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Keilan RobinsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Joshua CephusWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kameron JohnsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 5.0 | 1.7 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 12.9 | 18.6 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse