Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W5 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 11.4 | 11.2 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Van JeffersonWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 3.8 | 2.1 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 15.3 | 16.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 11.5 | 23.0 | +11.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Simi FehokoWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 5.9 | 0.0 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Adam PrenticeRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.8 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 10.8 | 14.7 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 16.6 | 29.0 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Justin FieldsQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 20.0 | 25.9 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Elijah MooreWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 7.0 | 5.6 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 19.0 | 26.9 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 2.6 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 4.6 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 10.4 | 8.6 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | George PickensWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 19.0 | 13.7 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 19.3 | 4.9 | −14.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 16.0 | 23.1 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | 2.1 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 10.2 | 11.0 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 1.3 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Stone SmarttTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 9.5 | 0.0 | −9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | 6.8 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 4.1 | 2.2 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 18.8 | 31.1 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 12.0 | 23.9 | +11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | 2.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 6.3 | 12.1 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Will MalloryTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 17.6 | 27.2 | +9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 2.6 | 1.3 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 7.7 | 3.6 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 9.8 | 11.1 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | 16.8 | +12.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 4.2 | 13.2 | +9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 2.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Rakim JarrettWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ryan MillerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Mitchell TinsleyWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 8.2 | 16.8 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | 2.9 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 11.9 | 11.4 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected −0.8) | 15.9 | 28.8 | +12.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jha'Quan JacksonWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | 18.4 | +15.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brenden BatesTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 0.3 | 4.3 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Blake WatsonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kameron JohnsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | 0.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | British BrooksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 1.5 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Cody SchraderRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | 1.3 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jermaine BurtonWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 13.8 | 13.8 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 7.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 0.1 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 6.3 | 4.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | 0.0 | −6.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 11.2 | 10.3 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 6.6 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 13.4 | 14.4 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Emeka EgbukaWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 14.9 | 31.3 | +16.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse