Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W6Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)15.723.0+7.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Xavier WorthyWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)10.210.6+0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W6Keon ColemanWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)11.64.1−7.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Malachi CorleyWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.00.0−1.0voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Mitchell EvansTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.43.1+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Oronde Gadsden IITE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)5.711.8+6.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Ollie Gordon IIRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)3.01.2−1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Tahj BrooksRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Moliki MatavaoTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Gage LarvadainWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)0.74.2+3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Nate CarterRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Gunnar HelmTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)3.83.5−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W6Konata MumpfieldWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)0.41.7+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Trevor EtienneRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)3.31.7−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Jalen RoyalsWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)0.60.0−0.6voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tory HortonWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)6.80.0−6.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Omarion HamptonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)17.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Dillon GabrielQB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3)9.78.8−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Cam SkatteboRB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.3)13.331.0+17.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Terrance FergusonTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)1.00.0−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Isaiah BondWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)5.12.9−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Marcedes LewisTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Robert WoodsWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Geno SmithQB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.6)13.85.9−7.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Amari CooperWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)5.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Michael BurtonRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Eric TomlinsonTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Ameer AbdullahRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)7.96.6−1.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Tyler LockettWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)4.87.6+2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Sterling ShepardWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)7.011.9+4.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Austin HooperTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)4.60.0−4.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Laquon TreadwellWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Tyler BoydWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Tyreek HillWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)14.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Ezekiel ElliottRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Dak PrescottQB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3)16.428.3+11.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)9.86.6−3.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Mo Alie-CoxTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)2.10.0−2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Zach PascalWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Curtis SamuelWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)5.010.6+5.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Cooper RushQB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.3)12.21.2−11.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Dare OgunbowaleRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)2.50.0−2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Evan EngramTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)6.913.3+6.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Zay JonesWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)2.52.8+0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W5Dalvin CookRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Joe MixonRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)11.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Cooper KuppWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)10.911.9+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Chris Godwin Jr.WR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)14.25.6−8.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Kareem HuntRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)8.018.7+10.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Will DisslyTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0)5.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Tyler ConklinTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0)3.25.0+1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Dalton SchultzTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)8.711.0+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Justin WatsonWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)3.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Braxton BerriosWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Mark AndrewsTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)9.24.2−5.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Christian KirkWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)8.710.4+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Nick ChubbRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)9.512.1+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Hayden HurstTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Calvin RidleyWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)9.518.1+8.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Baker MayfieldQB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.6)16.226.7+10.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Josh AllenQB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3)22.319.4−2.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Sam DarnoldQB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3)15.827.6+11.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Steven SimsWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Jakobi MeyersWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)14.47.2−7.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Irv SmithTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Ashton DulinWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)1.47.5+6.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Jake BrowningQB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.3)12.619.1+6.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Mecole HardmanWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Cody ThompsonWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Diontae JohnsonWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Kyler MurrayQB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6)19.215.3−3.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Miles SandersRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)6.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Trenton IrwinWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Greg DortchWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)4.23.2−1.0voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Ty JohnsonRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)4.91.0−3.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Alex BachmanWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)0.81.9+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Parris CampbellWR DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Dawson KnoxTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)4.43.5−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Daniel JonesQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected −0.3)18.816.7−2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Jakob JohnsonRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Mitchell WilcoxTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5JaMycal HastyRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Cody WhiteWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5J.J. TaylorRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5James ProcheWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5J.K. DobbinsRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)12.415.4+3.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Mason KinseyWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)3.00.0−3.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Kristian WilkersonWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Reggie GilliamRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)0.70.0−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Gabe DavisWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)8.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Tua TagovailoaQB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected −0.3)15.222.7+7.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Marquez CallawayWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Jonathan TaylorRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)23.231.6+8.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Harrison BryantTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)0.61.5+0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Michael PittmanWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)16.914.9−2.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)4.13.6−0.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Justin HerbertQB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.3)19.414.6−4.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)3.1––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 32 of 69 · 6,885 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse