Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W6Stephen SullivanTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tim JonesWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Quintin MorrisTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.50.0−0.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Dyami BrownWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)9.74.0−5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Zach DavidsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Simi FehokoWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Jack StollTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)1.20.0−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Austin TrammellWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tutu AtwellWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)4.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Ben SkowronekWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.90.0−1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Jaelon DardenWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Najee HarrisRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)4.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Kadarius ToneyWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Avery WilliamsRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.6)16.619.2+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Mac JonesQB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3)15.411.2−4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Elijah MooreWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)3.80.0−3.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Josh PalmerWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)6.98.0+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Hunter LongTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)2.83.9+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Tommy TrembleTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)5.97.9+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Dareke YoungWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.20.0−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Justyn RossWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Greg DulcichTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Khalil ShakirWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)11.76.3−5.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Tyler AllgeierRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)6.510.8+4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Montrell WashingtonWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6James MitchellTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.00.0−2.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Mike WoodsWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)5.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0)0.80.0−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Tanner ConnerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)2.41.8−0.6voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Kaden DavisWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Brandon JohnsonWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Jalen VirgilWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Raheem BlackshearRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Lucas KrullTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Ronnie RiversRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)6.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Julius ChestnutRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)1.50.0−1.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Hassan HaskinsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)1.63.3+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Tucker FiskTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Chig OkonkwoTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)6.610.6+4.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Isaiah LikelyTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0)4.12.6−1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Kyren WilliamsRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)19.816.7−3.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Charlie KolarTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0)1.50.0−1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Skyy MooreWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.20.0−1.2voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tyquan ThorntonWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)9.00.0−9.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Daniel BellingerTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)2.50.0−2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Cade OttonTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)8.110.1+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Thomas OdukoyaTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Xavier SmithWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Eric GrayRB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Keaton MitchellRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)2.50.0−2.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Jason BrownleeWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Nikko RemigioWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)1.30.0−1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Bijan RobinsonRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)20.335.8+15.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)19.130.2+11.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Michael WilsonWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4)6.48.4+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Chase BrownRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)11.98.9−3.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Parker WashingtonWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)7.54.9−2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Scott MatlockRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Jalen BrooksWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Elijah CooksWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tyrell ShaversWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.85.7+3.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Julian HillTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)3.56.1+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Jake BoboWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.20.0−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Nate AdkinsTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)1.910.3+8.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Brenton StrangeTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)8.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Cedric TillmanWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)5.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tyjae SpearsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)5.39.0+3.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W6De'Von AchaneRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)17.131.0+13.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Payne DurhamTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)1.50.0−1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Rashee RiceWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)9.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Davis AllenTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)2.51.7−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Puka NacuaWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)23.44.8−18.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3)16.218.5+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Dante MillerRB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Kendall MiltonRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Jonathon BrooksRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Ja'Tavion SandersTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)4.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Jacob CowingWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Spencer RattlerQB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3)16.511.1−5.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Jamari ThrashWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.43.3+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.3)7.40.6−6.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Kimani VidalRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.822.8+20.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Jase McClellanRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Treyton WelchTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Xavier WeaverWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Joshua CephusWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Dallin HolkerTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6David Martin-RobinsonTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)0.37.1+6.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Cody SchraderRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Bo NixQB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3)19.113.4−5.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Blake CorumRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)4.72.3−2.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Roman WilsonWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.62.2+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Jordan WhittingtonWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)4.35.3+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Devin CulpTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)1.40.0−1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Rasheen AliRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Theo JohnsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)7.24.7−2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4)11.85.2−6.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Jaylen WrightRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 31 of 69 · 6,885 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse