Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W7 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | 1.8 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 7.1 | 1.9 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 5.2 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jared WileyTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 6.3 | 8.0 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tahj WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.8) | 22.4 | 17.7 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 15.0 | 15.7 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | 13.1 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 13.0 | 16.9 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Emeka EgbukaWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4) | 18.3 | 9.8 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kaleb JohnsonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jaylin LaneWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 8.9 | 9.0 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | DJ GiddensRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Mitchell EvansTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 2.2 | 4.4 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Devin NealRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 0.1 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tez JohnsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4) | 6.1 | 15.8 | +9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 12.4 | 4.2 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Moliki MatavaoTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ja'Corey BrooksWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ulysses Bentley IVRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Nate CarterRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Gunnar HelmTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 4.2 | 7.6 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 7.5 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Cam WardQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3) | 11.1 | 10.2 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tre HarrisWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 3.5 | 4.3 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 8.2 | 0.5 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Mason TaylorTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 10.6 | 6.1 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Terrance FergusonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 10.1 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Elijah ArroyoTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | 6.2 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Aaron RodgersQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 14.3 | 17.5 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Marcedes LewisTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 18.2 | 9.3 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 16.7 | 7.9 | −8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 8.1 | 9.2 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 13.5 | 14.0 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Demarcus RobinsonWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 7.1 | 6.4 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 6.3 | 14.0 | +7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jacoby BrissettQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.8) | 12.0 | 20.7 | +8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Johnny MundtTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | 2.4 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kendrick BourneWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 9.9 | 19.2 | +9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tim PatrickWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | 9.6 | +7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Samaje PerineRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | 5.2 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 5.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 7.4 | 8.7 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.6) | 21.1 | 31.5 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Evan EngramTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 7.5 | 9.9 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4) | 2.9 | 12.9 | +10.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 12.0 | 12.0 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 6.0 | 3.8 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Mike BooneRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 4.2 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Russell GageWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 9.3 | 6.6 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3) | 19.8 | 19.6 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 21.1 | 15.4 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Malik TurnerWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 16.5 | 20.0 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Steven SimsWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 7.2 | 9.4 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 3.4 | 1.9 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | 3.5 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.8) | 14.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 3.2 | 1.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 11.4 | 6.7 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Trayveon WilliamsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4) | 4.0 | 9.9 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 16.5 | 19.5 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 12.2 | 20.5 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 8.4 | 1.5 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 14.2 | 33.9 | +19.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 9.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 14.7 | 6.6 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 10.6 | 1.7 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 13.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 10.3 | 9.3 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | 0.0 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | DeeJay DallasRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse