Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W7 | Marquez CallawayWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 19.0 | 34.2 | +15.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 3.4 | 7.7 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 11.1 | 7.1 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | AJ DillonRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.6) | 20.0 | 27.9 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 12.2 | 2.5 | −9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 6.5 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Dez FitzpatrickWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | John BatesTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | 1.5 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 4.0 | 3.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jack StollTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Feleipe FranksTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kene NwangwuRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 6.4 | 0.0 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 12.1 | 16.8 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kylen GransonTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Khalil HerbertRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kenny GainwellRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 11.3 | 3.5 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 9.1 | 13.2 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Mac JonesQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 16.8 | 5.2 | −11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Trey SermonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 5.6 | 1.0 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3) | 12.1 | 12.4 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 15.4 | 19.8 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Dameon PierceRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | 1.6 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | James MitchellTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Stone SmarttTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tay MartinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 6.3 | 0.0 | −6.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Treylon BurksWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 7.6 | 0.0 | −7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 19.3 | 8.5 | −10.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Skyy MooreWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 2.5 | +1.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 16.7 | 7.2 | −9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 9.2 | 13.5 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Thomas OdukoyaTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 3.5 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Will MalloryTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Evan HullRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ben VanSumerenRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 21.7 | 21.2 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 14.0 | 11.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 5.1 | 0.7 | −4.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tank BigsbyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | 2.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Cameron LatuTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | 7.2 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Rakim JarrettWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ryan MillerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4) | 2.6 | 2.4 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Trey PalmerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 1.4 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 13.5 | 10.5 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Baylor CuppTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 7.6 | 0.0 | −7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 4.6 | 0.0 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jacob CowingWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Brenden RiceWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Treyton WelchTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kameron JohnsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jaylen JohnsonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Cody SchraderRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | 5.3 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | 1.7 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | 2.9 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse