Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W13 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 6.9 | 0.7 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 11.2 | 1.7 | −9.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alex ArmahRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 15.5 | 11.1 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 7.1 | 7.7 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Eric SaubertTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | David MooreWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 7.1 | 9.0 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cooper RushQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 14.8 | 11.8 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Leonard FournetteRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.8 | 2.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 10.2 | 21.3 | +11.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 20.8 | 16.6 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 11.2 | 11.1 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 15.7 | 4.7 | −11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.9 | 3.2 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mike BooneRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 6.4 | 7.2 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Richie JamesWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 10.3 | 12.5 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Justin WatsonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 4.8 | 7.6 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 8.9 | 13.3 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Boston ScottRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 4.0 | 6.8 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rashaad PennyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Michael GallupWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.7 | 1.8 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 12.3 | 23.7 | +11.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 6.5 | 10.3 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 21.7 | 19.7 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 18.7 | 10.2 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 19.4 | 28.4 | +9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Keelan DossWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.4 | 3.5 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cody ThompsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen GuytonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Andy IsabellaWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 7.2 | 2.8 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 4.0 | 4.7 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Parker HesseTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.7 | 2.8 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 18.8 | 21.7 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Miles BoykinWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Derrick GoreRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | James RobinsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dan ChisenaWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.9 | 1.6 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Noah TogiaiTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Salvon AhmedRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | James ProcheWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 13.0 | 21.3 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Marquez CallawayWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Collin JohnsonWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | AJ DillonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 13.0 | 9.4 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 7.7 | 5.6 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 13.1 | 5.0 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Josiah DeguaraTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 17.6 | 8.0 | −9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 18.1 | 5.9 | −12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 18.8 | 17.6 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 14.9 | 40.5 | +25.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Van JeffersonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 5.2 | 5.3 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | DeeJay DallasRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.9 | 1.5 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mike StrachanWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 16.9 | 2.3 | −14.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse