Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W13 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | John BatesTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Simi FehokoWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Josh PedersonTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jack StollTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brock WrightTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 2.9 | 2.3 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Feleipe FranksTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kene NwangwuRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 5.9 | 5.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris EvansRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.8 | 3.3 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Luke FarrellTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.6 | 24.9 | +11.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 7.0 | 18.8 | +11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.0 | 1.4 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.6 | 0.3 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 5.3 | 0.0 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 8.7 | 0.0 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 13.4 | 0.2 | −13.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mac JonesQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 12.3 | 20.0 | +7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 11.0 | 19.2 | +8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Josh PalmerWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 9.4 | 4.1 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 6.5 | 12.7 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cole TurnerTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Justyn RossWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 9.2 | 10.4 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 14.6 | 17.3 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | George PickensWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 15.6 | 16.4 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 16.9 | 19.0 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 14.6 | 8.8 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | David BellWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 13.5 | 7.0 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Montrell WashingtonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | James MitchellTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Raheem BlackshearRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Deven ThompkinsWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 5.4 | 7.8 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.5 | 5.4 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 8.2 | 6.1 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 14.6 | 21.6 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Velus Jones Jr.RB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 15.3 | 17.9 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.3 | 9.5 | +5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.5 | 1.3 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 5.8 | 10.9 | +5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Skyy MooreWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 8.2 | 2.6 | −5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 16.5 | 6.0 | −10.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 9.8 | 6.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Henry PearsonTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tommy DeVitoQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Bryce Ford-WheatonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 9.7 | 3.2 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 3.3 | 2.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 2.7 | 1.6 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 15.3 | 19.0 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.4 | 15.4 | +11.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 3.9 | 1.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.7 | 4.9 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 3.4 | 2.5 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.5 | 1.5 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.9 | 0.4 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.3 | 2.6 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.0 | 2.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ben SimsTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rakim JarrettWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ryan MillerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Terrell BynumWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.5 | 2.4 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.0 | 2.8 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 8.8 | 13.8 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 14.7 | 21.0 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 2.8 | 4.3 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trey PalmerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 3.9 | 1.2 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse