Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W13 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 10.6 | 15.6 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 10.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 14.8 | 17.3 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 13.5 | 23.6 | +10.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kendall MiltonRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 13.1 | 15.3 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Xavier LegetteWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 11.4 | 9.3 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonathon BrooksRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.2 | 7.1 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 12.3 | 27.5 | +15.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.3 | 8.6 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.8 | 3.1 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brenden RiceWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kameron JohnsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cam GrandyTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jaylen JohnsonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 18.0 | 12.2 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.6 | 1.9 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.6 | 0.4 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 6.3 | 4.7 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.7 | 12.2 | +10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | MarShawn LloydRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Erick AllTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 6.1 | 4.5 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 5.2 | 13.7 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 10.0 | 10.4 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.5 | 1.3 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 14.5 | 20.7 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 14.6 | 26.1 | +11.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 10.3 | 4.5 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 3.4 | 2.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 10.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brandon BoldenRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.9 | 2.4 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Adam ThielenWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 9.6 | 8.7 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 13.5 | 12.2 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 17.0 | 12.4 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.7 | -0.2 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Willie SneadWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | DeVante ParkerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Blake BellTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 9.9 | 17.5 | +7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ty MontgomeryWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Phillip DorsettWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.8 | 15.9 | +11.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Nick VannettTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 10.0 | 9.4 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kenyan DrakeRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 3.1 | 1.7 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 15.9 | 7.8 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 9.7 | 20.2 | +10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.2 | 6.0 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 0.9 | 3.9 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Anthony FirkserTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 17.1 | 9.9 | −7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Eric SaubertTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | David MooreWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.8 | 20.1 | +15.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 8.8 | 13.1 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 19.1 | 28.8 | +9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 10.2 | 3.9 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 18.5 | 9.5 | −9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 11.0 | 8.7 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 4.1 | 7.1 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kevin RaderTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Byron PringleWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 15.1 | 29.7 | +14.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 3.7 | 6.8 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 7.4 | 4.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 5.5 | 19.0 | +13.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 23.7 | 22.6 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 15.2 | 21.1 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Andrew BeckRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 11.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Olamide ZaccheausWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 4.4 | 1.8 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Deonte HartyWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse