Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W11 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | David SillsWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 6.6 | 15.2 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Andy IsabellaWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jesper HorstedTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | N'Keal HarryTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 13.6 | 14.0 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 13.0 | 2.0 | −11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 5.1 | 12.0 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | James ProcheWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 10.9 | 5.4 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 14.7 | 18.9 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 15.8 | 23.5 | +7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 4.1 | 8.9 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 11.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chase ClaypoolWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 14.6 | 18.6 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 12.7 | 26.2 | +13.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.5 | 5.9 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 13.2 | 9.4 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 9.9 | 5.7 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dyami BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 2.8 | 1.4 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chris EvansRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 8.2 | 3.4 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.0 | -0.7 | −3.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Justin FieldsQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 17.4 | 1.7 | −15.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 9.0 | 1.9 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 9.8 | 18.6 | +8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | David BellWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 15.0 | 15.0 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 7.3 | 1.3 | −6.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 4.1 | 6.3 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.0 | 0.1 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 7.9 | 4.1 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 4.3 | 17.6 | +13.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 6.5 | 9.5 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 18.1 | 8.6 | −9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.1 | 0.9 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 14.9 | 21.8 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 3.1 | 6.2 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 7.2 | 6.5 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 13.8 | 19.3 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.8 | 2.7 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 3.3 | 0.3 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brycen TremayneWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | John ShenkerTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 4.0 | 13.3 | +9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 12.7 | 9.8 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 8.5 | 7.7 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 4.1 | 0.0 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Michael MayerTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.9 | 1.5 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 16.0 | 10.9 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chris CollierRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kendall MiltonRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 12.4 | 31.3 | +18.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse