Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W11 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.6 | 2.1 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.0 | 3.9 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 7.8 | 10.6 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 18.1 | 28.8 | +10.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 2.4 | 3.8 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 6.0 | 9.5 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.1 | 4.8 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 18.1 | 13.4 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 16.7 | 4.0 | −12.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 16.5 | 9.7 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Julio JonesWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 16.7 | 10.2 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 13.3 | 20.4 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Darren WallerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 8.9 | 5.4 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Damiere ByrdWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Blake BellTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tyler KroftTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Sterling ShepardWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 7.1 | 2.0 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.4 | 0.0 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 16.8 | 7.8 | −9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 15.4 | 14.7 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Matt BreidaRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 6.2 | 0.0 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Anthony FirkserTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | John RossWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Eric SaubertTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 8.9 | 7.5 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 17.5 | 16.5 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 16.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 7.8 | 8.0 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.6 | 5.5 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 6.8 | 1.8 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.0 | 1.3 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 10.1 | 6.6 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 2.3 | 1.6 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 16.3 | 8.9 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Cody ThompsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Devine OzigboRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 8.2 | 5.5 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tyree JacksonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Joseph FortsonTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Parris CampbellWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 14.8 | 15.9 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 12.8 | 12.6 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Daniel JonesQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 17.3 | 12.2 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jakob JohnsonRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Salvon AhmedRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Lawrence CagerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 17.0 | 8.5 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Marquez CallawayWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Donovan Peoples-JonesWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Quez WatkinsWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 16.4 | 7.5 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 7.0 | 3.3 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 15.7 | 14.6 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 16.5 | 19.8 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 19.7 | 29.7 | +9.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Deon JacksonRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.6 | 1.4 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 3.9 | 3.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Feleipe FranksTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 13.5 | 3.4 | −10.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 18.7 | 18.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tre' McKittyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Britain CoveyWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse