Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W10 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 13.6 | 17.7 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 9.7 | 8.3 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Greg DulcichTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jashaun CorbinRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.9 | 1.6 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.1 | 6.4 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.9 | 3.7 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 2.6 | 3.7 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 20.5 | 23.8 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 19.2 | 11.2 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Antoine GreenWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Rakim JarrettWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 3.9 | 3.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ryan MillerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 5.5 | 2.1 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 6.2 | 1.1 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 17.0 | 10.2 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Trey PalmerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 5.9 | 0.0 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.7 | 8.4 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 18.9 | 12.8 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 10.4 | 12.0 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Dante MillerRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.3 | 7.5 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 6.9 | 8.8 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 13.2 | 15.4 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kameron JohnsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.5 | 2.5 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.5 | 2.6 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jared WileyTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 5.4 | 7.7 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 7.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.3 | 0.3 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 16.0 | 6.3 | −9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 15.3 | 20.3 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 15.4 | 17.9 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Randall CobbWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 18.2 | 17.8 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 10.5 | 7.6 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Latavius MurrayRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Damien WilliamsRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.4 | 4.5 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Derek CarrQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 15.9 | 13.4 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 12.8 | 22.1 | +9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.2 | 1.2 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | DeVante ParkerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.1 | -0.1 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.0 | 1.2 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Damiere ByrdWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ty MontgomeryWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Sterling ShepardWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.5 | 10.9 | +6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.0 | 1.8 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Nick VannettTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 2.0 | 11.3 | +9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Chris MooreWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dwayne WashingtonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 5.0 | 1.0 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Robbie ChosenWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 7.7 | 27.4 | +19.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 14.2 | 12.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 7.9 | 12.6 | +4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 16.2 | 9.6 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jacoby BrissettQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 11.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.6 | 0.0 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.2 | 8.1 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 5.5 | 3.2 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Mike WilliamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.9 | 1.6 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 15.9 | 14.9 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.0 | 14.0 | +9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jamal AgnewWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | David MooreWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.7 | 4.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Leonard FournetteRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 26.4 | 27.5 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 13.0 | 21.4 | +8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 16.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Josh ReynoldsWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse