Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W9 | River CracraftWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 9.3 | 2.9 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kevin RaderTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 7.2 | 5.1 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 8.7 | 12.5 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Braxton BerriosWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 8.0 | 4.6 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Mason RudolphQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 13.6 | 17.5 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 24.6 | 23.6 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 12.8 | 7.3 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 3.1 | 1.6 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.3 | 1.9 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 14.0 | 18.0 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 20.6 | 22.1 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.4 | 8.7 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Cody ThompsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 18.0 | 4.8 | −13.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Trevon WescoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Matt SokolTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Malik TaylorWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 5.5 | 0.0 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Andy IsabellaWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.6 | 2.3 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Parker HesseTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.4 | 1.5 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.4 | 0.7 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dan ChisenaWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 6.0 | 6.1 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 16.1 | 24.5 | +8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Gabe DavisWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 10.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 13.8 | 17.5 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Marquez CallawayWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 12.3 | 8.9 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dalton KeeneTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Donovan Peoples-JonesWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 6.1 | 0.0 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Collin JohnsonWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 13.9 | 19.8 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Chase ClaypoolWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 5.8 | 2.1 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Devin DuvernayWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | K.J. OsbornWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 7.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 3.6 | 1.4 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | DeeJay DallasRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.6 | 0.2 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 4.5 | 6.8 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Mike StrachanWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Quintin MorrisTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.3 | 7.2 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 10.5 | 7.6 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brock WrightTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.6 | 1.1 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 2.1 | 6.0 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 7.1 | 2.6 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 12.4 | 22.4 | +10.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 2.5 | 3.2 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 16.3 | 18.6 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 13.9 | 19.6 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 4.0 | 2.3 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 12.3 | 10.4 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.9 | 1.4 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tre' McKittyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Irvin CharlesWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 16.4 | 10.7 | −5.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 9.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 17.1 | 11.9 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 10.3 | 11.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | James MitchellTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Keaontay IngramRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Skylar ThompsonQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 12.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Deven ThompkinsWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.3 | -0.2 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 4.1 | 0.0 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse