Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W8 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 6.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 13.3 | 14.9 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.9 | 7.0 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Miles BoykinWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Trishton JacksonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.4 | 0.9 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler HuntleyQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 15.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Easop WinstonWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | James ProcheWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 12.5 | 18.7 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Donovan Peoples-JonesWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 8.7 | 3.7 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 12.2 | 2.6 | −9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.4 | 2.0 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 13.2 | 18.6 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 18.5 | 19.5 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Chase ClaypoolWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Josiah DeguaraTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Anthony McFarlandRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 16.2 | 24.1 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Lynn BowdenWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.8 | 5.5 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 11.8 | 12.9 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Van JeffersonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 5.1 | 10.2 | +5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.0 | 18.5 | +15.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | DeeJay DallasRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.7 | 2.3 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.2 | 13.2 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 13.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Quintin MorrisTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 11.8 | 8.5 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.5 | 1.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Dyami BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 3.0 | 1.6 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | John BatesTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.1 | 3.0 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Simi FehokoWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 5.6 | 0.0 | −5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Josh PedersonTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brock WrightTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.6 | 7.8 | +5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Feleipe FranksTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kene NwangwuRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.4 | 1.4 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Luke FarrellTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 14.9 | 16.1 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 7.5 | 3.9 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 6.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 18.2 | 8.7 | −9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 9.6 | 25.1 | +15.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 8.6 | 16.5 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 7.0 | 2.4 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Josh PalmerWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 10.5 | 9.2 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Amari RodgersWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 15.7 | 9.2 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.1 | 2.8 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 3.9 | 3.3 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tre' McKittyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Cole TurnerTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.8 | 0.0 | −5.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 9.1 | 7.9 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 16.6 | 7.4 | −9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 10.5 | 18.7 | +8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 10.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | George PickensWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 15.1 | 11.4 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 14.6 | 28.3 | +13.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | David BellWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 7.9 | 19.9 | +12.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 6.4 | 0.0 | −6.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | James MitchellTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 6.5 | 3.6 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Keaontay IngramRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Skylar ThompsonQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 13.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ethan FerneaWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse