Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W7 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Van JeffersonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 4.6 | 9.5 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 17.3 | 14.9 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.8 | 3.7 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 10.7 | 22.1 | +11.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 10.6 | 2.1 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dyami BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.3 | 3.3 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | John BatesTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Josh PedersonTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jack StollTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brock WrightTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Luke FarrellTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 7.3 | 7.1 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.1 | 7.7 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Justin FieldsQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 14.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 9.3 | 13.5 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 17.4 | 15.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 8.6 | 10.1 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 12.0 | 5.9 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 12.4 | 26.1 | +13.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Cole TurnerTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.7 | 1.5 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.9 | 1.7 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Samori ToureWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 8.5 | 11.1 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Bam KnightRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 17.3 | 18.3 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | George PickensWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 13.2 | 22.1 | +8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | David BellWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.8 | 13.5 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 7.5 | 0.4 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | James MitchellTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Skylar ThompsonQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 11.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Rod WilliamsTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 11.4 | 8.9 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.3 | 7.1 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 15.0 | 13.1 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 10.2 | 17.4 | +7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 4.5 | 4.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 20.4 | 19.6 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 7.0 | 1.5 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 16.4 | 23.3 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 6.8 | 13.8 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Will MalloryTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.9 | 1.5 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Evan HullRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Malik HeathWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Henry PearsonTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ben VanSumerenRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.8 | 7.6 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 9.6 | 2.5 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 9.8 | 7.7 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Aidan O'ConnellQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 10.2 | 2.1 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | A.T. PerryWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.8 | 0.5 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.6 | 1.4 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 6.1 | 3.5 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.2 | 1.1 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ben SimsTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.9 | 1.2 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brycen TremayneWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | SaRodorick Thompson Jr.RB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 3.7 | 18.1 | +14.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 7.9 | 12.3 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 9.7 | 10.5 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 17.7 | 4.0 | −13.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 8.9 | 3.5 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 16.4 | 32.0 | +15.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 12.9 | 3.0 | −9.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse