Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W7 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 11.0 | 1.9 | −9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.8 | 0.0 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.7 | 1.7 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.3 | 0.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 12.5 | 6.3 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Bub MeansWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 5.2 | 6.7 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Blake WatsonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 5.2 | 10.5 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 14.7 | 14.1 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.6 | 1.1 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.7 | 1.5 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 2.1 | 1.5 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | MarShawn LloydRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Erick AllTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 4.1 | 0.0 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 8.5 | 5.1 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 3.0 | 3.3 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.1 | 2.9 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 7.8 | 16.5 | +8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 24.5 | 5.2 | −19.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.2 | 8.6 | +8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 14.3 | 17.8 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Joe FlaccoQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 13.8 | 13.7 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Randall CobbWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.7 | 10.6 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | DeAndre HopkinsWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 8.5 | 9.4 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 16.9 | 12.5 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Willie SneadWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | DeVante ParkerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ty MontgomeryWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Phillip DorsettWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyler LockettWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 10.8 | 16.5 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.7 | -0.5 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | J.P. HoltzTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyler BoydWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 7.2 | 4.9 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 7.7 | 1.7 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 7.2 | 13.1 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jacoby BrissettQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Darrell DanielsTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 16.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 5.6 | 7.4 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 12.3 | 22.8 | +10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.5 | 2.9 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Matt BreidaRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Mike WilliamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 7.3 | 7.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jamal AgnewWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Eric SaubertTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 8.6 | 18.2 | +9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 3.5 | 6.6 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Mike BooneRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 12.6 | 15.3 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 11.9 | 0.0 | −11.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 7.5 | 6.7 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Boston ScottRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 9.1 | 23.4 | +14.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Rashaad PennyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tre'Quan SmithWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Mason RudolphQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 12.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 12.3 | 6.9 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 6.3 | 0.0 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 5.7 | 0.0 | −5.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 9.7 | 0.9 | −8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 18.6 | 7.4 | −11.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 17.4 | 25.9 | +8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 16.5 | 24.4 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 3.6 | 7.4 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Devine OzigboRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 6.8 | 2.3 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 16.8 | 17.8 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse