Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W6 | David SillsWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stanley MorganWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 5.4 | 1.8 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Matt SokolTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Malik TaylorWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Andy IsabellaWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 12.6 | 11.7 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.1 | 2.1 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Parker HesseTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Juwann WinfreeWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 14.7 | 7.8 | −6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 12.8 | 21.0 | +8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Daniel JonesQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 15.5 | 11.8 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 13.3 | 20.7 | +7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jakob JohnsonRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.3 | 1.3 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Giovanni RicciTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.5 | 3.8 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Noah TogiaiTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 4.9 | 7.8 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Easop WinstonWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 11.9 | 10.5 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 18.6 | 18.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.9 | 1.5 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Mason KinseyWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.9 | 7.9 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Gabe DavisWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 8.8 | 21.5 | +12.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dalton KeeneTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 15.9 | 0.5 | −15.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 12.9 | 12.5 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 9.9 | 5.7 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 13.7 | 5.7 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.3 | 6.0 | +4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Devin DuvernayWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Josiah DeguaraTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Anthony McFarlandRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | K.J. OsbornWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 19.5 | 21.9 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 15.1 | 14.7 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 18.7 | 19.8 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Deon JacksonRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 15.8 | 15.3 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Gary BrightwellRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Josh PedersonTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jack StollTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brock WrightTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Feleipe FranksTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kene NwangwuRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chris EvansRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Luke FarrellTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 14.1 | 20.2 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 8.7 | 3.6 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 16.8 | 12.2 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jacob HarrisWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 4.8 | 2.3 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Justin FieldsQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 15.6 | 23.7 | +8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 8.8 | 10.0 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 15.8 | 17.1 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Amari RodgersWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tre' McKittyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.8 | 10.7 | +8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Irvin CharlesWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Bam KnightRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 7.2 | 4.8 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 14.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 7.8 | 3.9 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 8.0 | 19.8 | +11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kyle PhilipsWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | James MitchellTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.8 | 1.4 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ethan FerneaWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jashaun CorbinRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kwamie Lassiter IIWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Raheem BlackshearRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Rod WilliamsTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.2 | 2.0 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tay MartinWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 14.3 | 9.2 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.0 | 0.2 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse