Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W5 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Justin FieldsQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 17.4 | 15.9 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 17.4 | 21.2 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 16.0 | 12.0 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 11.3 | 18.3 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 12.9 | 16.1 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cole TurnerTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 5.0 | 2.2 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Samori ToureWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 5.2 | 8.7 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 14.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | George PickensWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 17.5 | 5.6 | −11.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Greg DulcichTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 13.8 | 9.6 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 1.7 | 1.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Keaontay IngramRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.3 | 10.3 | +8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Skylar ThompsonQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 11.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 5.8 | 1.9 | −4.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jashaun CorbinRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 7.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rod WilliamsTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 15.1 | 8.8 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.8 | 1.5 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.4 | 1.4 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 17.4 | 13.8 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 18.1 | 13.1 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 4.3 | 1.6 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 10.9 | 13.0 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 7.8 | 7.4 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.1 | 2.6 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 10.4 | 4.0 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Will MalloryTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 1.9 | 1.7 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 3.2 | 6.4 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Malik HeathWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.1 | 3.4 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.4 | 1.8 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 4.0 | 25.9 | +21.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.0 | 1.5 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ronnie BellWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Elijah CooksWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 3.2 | 1.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.1 | 3.4 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.1 | 1.8 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 6.4 | 11.5 | +5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 6.4 | 14.5 | +8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.2 | 19.0 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 15.8 | 13.7 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 17.7 | 15.9 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 5.6 | 1.2 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 12.1 | 23.7 | +11.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.9 | 2.6 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 8.0 | 5.6 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.4 | 2.2 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jacob CowingWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 6.1 | 14.0 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.8 | 4.0 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | British BrooksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 13.7 | 23.1 | +9.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 6.6 | 15.9 | +9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jared WileyTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 3.8 | 9.8 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 12.4 | 23.2 | +10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 14.4 | 23.6 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 9.5 | 15.9 | +6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | DeAndre HopkinsWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 7.2 | 5.1 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 14.9 | 21.6 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 4.6 | 8.2 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Blake BellTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Nick VannettTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Robbie ChosenWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jonathan WilliamsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tyler BoydWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 6.0 | 5.1 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 13.2 | 8.2 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse