Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W4 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Darrell DanielsTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Alex ArmahRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.6 | 1.3 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Anthony FirkserTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Deshaun WatsonQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 14.7 | 12.2 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 3.0 | 15.4 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 18.0 | 13.0 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 14.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.8 | 1.7 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.0 | 20.4 | +19.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | River CracraftWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.9 | 1.9 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Kevin RaderTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 7.0 | 5.7 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Richie JamesWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 4.9 | 2.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 8.3 | 6.4 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Justin WatsonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 4.3 | 4.7 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Braxton BerriosWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Trent SherfieldWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.1 | 1.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Godwin IgwebuikeRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 8.2 | 0.1 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 8.3 | 2.5 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 14.4 | 20.5 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Devine OzigboRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Trevon WescoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 11.8 | 18.8 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Qadree OllisonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 5.9 | 8.6 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Parker HesseTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.4 | 1.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Noah FantTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 6.1 | 4.6 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 9.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 11.9 | 15.0 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Miles BoykinWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Daniel JonesQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 13.9 | 9.5 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Derrick GoreRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.7 | 1.5 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Trishton JacksonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Salvon AhmedRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 3.3 | 1.8 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 13.8 | 9.2 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Mason KinseyWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 14.2 | 19.8 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Dalton KeeneTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 17.7 | 20.5 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Chase ClaypoolWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 5.3 | 10.9 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Josiah DeguaraTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Anthony McFarlandRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Cam AkersRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 9.5 | 5.3 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Van JeffersonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 5.6 | 4.1 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 17.8 | 16.3 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 10.0 | 7.6 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 3.4 | 8.0 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Josh PedersonTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Brock WrightTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.5 | 3.3 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Kene NwangwuRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 10.8 | 8.2 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 4.1 | 0.0 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Luke FarrellTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 16.6 | 10.3 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Justin FieldsQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 15.9 | 32.0 | +16.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 8.5 | 0.0 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 13.2 | 14.8 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.9 | 0.8 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Bam KnightRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Justyn RossWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | George PickensWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 15.1 | 16.3 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 6.5 | 10.0 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 13.4 | 15.5 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Montrell WashingtonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Kyle PhilipsWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse