Who to start · 2025-26
Adam Larsson vs John Carlson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Adam Larsson's 1.64.
Larsson had 25 points in 82 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games.
This week Larsson has 2 games left with 1 soft matchup; Carlson has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Larsson for 3.7 ESPN points to Carlson's 1.6.
John Carlson has the better number in 27 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Larsson's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.043, Hits 110, Blocked shots 163.
Carlson's biggest edges: Corsi 54.5%, Fenwick 54.3%, Offensive-zone time 43.4%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Adam Larsson
1.64
fantasy points per game
John Carlson
2.10
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, John Carlson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Larsson | Carlson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.16 | 0.37 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.21 | 0.61 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.99 | 0.76 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Larsson vs Carlson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Larsson 4G 6A, 18 SOG · Carlson 0G 9A, 30 SOG
Larsson blocked 3 of Carlson's shots; Carlson blocked 1 of Larsson's.
On the ice against each other (Larsson's side)
12:14 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Larsson's side
- Shot attempts
- 9–14
- 39.1%
- Expected goals
- 0.3–0.4
- 43.8%
- Goals
- 0–2
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Larsson | Carlson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-27 | SEA 5–1 WSH | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-10-21 | SEA 1–4 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2025-03-09 | SEA 2–4 WSH | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 2A 2S |
| 2025-01-23 | SEA 0–3 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-03-14 | SEA 1–2 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-01-11 | SEA 4–1 WSH | 1G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2022-12-09 | SEA 1–4 WSH | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2022-12-01 | SEA 3–2 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-03-05 | SEA 2–5 WSH | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2021-11-21 | SEA 5–2 WSH | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2018-11-05 | EDM 2–4 WSH | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 2A 5S |
| 2018-10-25 | EDM 4–1 WSH | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 1A 4S |
Latest 12 of 14 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Adam Larsson
3games (2 left)
3.7proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ CGYOpp allows the most FP to DLikely vs Dustin Wolf (.899)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ EDM1.8 ptsOpp allows 13th-most FP to DLikely vs Tristan Jarry (.882)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs CGYB2B1.8 ptsOpp allows the most FP to DLikely vs Dustin Wolf (.899)
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.6 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Adam Larsson or John Carlson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Adam Larsson's 1.64. Larsson had 25 points in 82 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Adam Larsson or John Carlson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, John Carlson leads in 27 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Larsson and Carlson done against each other?
- In 14 games against each other in our data, Larsson's team went 5–9. Larsson had 10 points (4 goals) and Carlson had 9 (0 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →