Who to start · 2025-26
Alex DeBrincat vs John Carlson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Alex DeBrincat projects to 2.20 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10.
DeBrincat had 85 points in 82 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games.
This week DeBrincat has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Carlson has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project DeBrincat for 2.3 ESPN points to Carlson's 1.6.
John Carlson has the better number in 17 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
DeBrincat's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.060, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.20, 20+ mph bursts 115.
Carlson's biggest edges: Faceoffs won 0, Ascension score 53, Goals above expected +2.6.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Alex DeBrincat
2.20
fantasy points per game
John Carlson
2.10
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Alex DeBrincat has the edge.
| Points per game from | DeBrincat | Carlson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.94 | 0.37 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.50 | 0.61 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.22 | 0.76 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: DeBrincat vs Carlson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
DeBrincat 13G 7A, 64 SOG · Carlson 2G 12A, 35 SOG
DeBrincat blocked 4 of Carlson's shots; Carlson blocked 2 of DeBrincat's.
On the ice against each other (DeBrincat's side)
17:19 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from DeBrincat's side
- Shot attempts
- 12–21
- 36.4%
- Expected goals
- 0.7–1.0
- 41.3%
- Goals
- 0–3
Games against each other
| Date | Score | DeBrincat | Carlson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | DET 3–4 WSH | 2G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-12-21 | DET 3–2 WSH | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2025-12-20 | DET 5–2 WSH | 0G 0A 8S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-03-18 | DET 1–4 WSH | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2025-03-07 | DET 2–5 WSH | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2024-12-29 | DET 4–2 WSH | 2G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-04-09 | DET 1–2 WSH | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-03-26 | DET 3–4 WSH | 1G 1A 2S | 0G 2A 4S |
| 2024-02-27 | DET 8–3 WSH | 1G 0A 5S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2022-12-22 | OTT 2–3 WSH | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2022-10-20 | OTT 5–2 WSH | 1G 1A 5S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2021-12-15 | CHI 5–4 WSH | 2G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
Latest 12 of 18 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Alex DeBrincat
2games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs NYROpp allows 12th-fewest FP to RWSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Dylan Garand (.948)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs WPG2.3 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to RWLikely vs Stuart Skinner (.888)
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.6 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Alex DeBrincat or John Carlson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Alex DeBrincat projects to 2.20 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10. DeBrincat had 85 points in 82 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Alex DeBrincat or John Carlson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, John Carlson leads in 17 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have DeBrincat and Carlson done against each other?
- In 18 games against each other in our data, DeBrincat's team went 9–9. DeBrincat had 20 points (13 goals) and Carlson had 14 (2 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →