Who to start · 2025-26
Auston Matthews vs Erik Karlsson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Auston Matthews projects to 2.31 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Erik Karlsson's 1.96.
Matthews had 53 points in 60 games; Karlsson had 66 in 75 games.
This week Matthews has 1 game left; Karlsson has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Matthews for 2.7 ESPN points to Karlsson's 1.3.
Erik Karlsson has the better number in 23 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Matthews's biggest edges: Blocked shots 81, Transition attempts /60 2.09, Hits 42.
Karlsson's biggest edges: Goals above expected +2.1, Luck Meter +53, Corsi 54.0%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Auston Matthews
2.31
fantasy points per game
Erik Karlsson
1.96
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Auston Matthews has the edge.
| Points per game from | Matthews | Karlsson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.79 | 0.38 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.38 | 0.70 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.63 | 0.43 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Matthews vs Karlsson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Matthews 13G 9A, 70 SOG · Karlsson 5G 9A, 50 SOG
Matthews blocked 2 of Karlsson's shots; Karlsson blocked 0 of Matthews's.
On the ice against each other (Matthews's side)
22:32 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Matthews's side
- Shot attempts
- 19–28
- 40.4%
- Expected goals
- 1.4–0.5
- 73.9%
- Goals
- 3–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Matthews | Karlsson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-23 | TOR 6–3 PIT | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 6S |
| 2025-11-29 | TOR 7–2 PIT | 1G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-11-03 | TOR 4–3 PIT | 1G 1A 4S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2025-03-02 | TOR 6–5 PIT | 1G 1A 6S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2024-12-07 | TOR 2–5 PIT | 0G 2A 4S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2024-10-12 | TOR 4–2 PIT | 0G 0A 8S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-04-08 | TOR 3–2 PIT | 1G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2023-11-25 | TOR 2–3 PIT | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2022-11-30 | TOR 3–1 SJS | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2022-10-27 | TOR 3–4 SJS | 1G 0A 7S | 1G 2A 7S |
| 2021-11-26 | TOR 4–1 SJS | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2021-10-22 | TOR 3–5 SJS | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 1S |
Latest 12 of 18 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Auston Matthews
3games (1 left)
2.7proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs MTLOpp allows 14th-most FP to CLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
- Wed, Sep 30 vs NYIB2BOpp allows 15th-most FP to CSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Ilya Sorokin (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs OTT2.7 ptsvs Linus Ullmark (.891)
Erik Karlsson
2games (1 left)
1.3proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ PHIOpp allows 2nd-most FP to DLikely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL1.3 ptsOpp allows 7th-fewest FP to Dvs Jakub Dobes (.901)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Auston Matthews or Erik Karlsson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Auston Matthews projects to 2.31 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Erik Karlsson's 1.96. Matthews had 53 points in 60 games; Karlsson had 66 in 75 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Auston Matthews or Erik Karlsson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Erik Karlsson leads in 23 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Matthews and Karlsson done against each other?
- In 18 games against each other in our data, Matthews's team went 12–6. Matthews had 22 points (13 goals) and Karlsson had 14 (5 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →