Who to start · 2025-26
Brock Nelson vs Sebastian Aho
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Sebastian Aho's 2.01.
Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games.
This week Nelson has 1 game left; Aho has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Aho for 2.2 ESPN points to Nelson's 1.6.
Brock Nelson has the better number in 18 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Nelson's biggest edges: Blocked shots 65, Turnover Ledger /60 +0.000, Goals above expected +1.1.
Aho's biggest edges: Offensive-zone start % 68.8%, Transition attempts /60 1.26, Hits 63.
Head to head on the dot, Aho leads Nelson 61–59.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 2 A, 3 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 6 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Brock Nelson
2.23
fantasy points per game
Sebastian Aho
2.01
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Brock Nelson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Nelson | Aho |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.89 | 0.72 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.50 | 0.59 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.38 | 0.16 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Nelson vs Aho
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Nelson 16G 14A, 86 SOG · Aho 20G 20A, 107 SOG
Nelson's offensive zone 18–14 · neutral 21–27 · Nelson's defensive zone 20–20 (2017-18 to 2025-26)
Nelson blocked 1 of Aho's shots; Aho blocked 1 of Nelson's.
On the ice against each other (Nelson's side)
4:51 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Nelson's side
- Shot attempts
- 7–6
- 53.8%
- Expected goals
- 1.1–0.3
- 77.4%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Nelson | Aho |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | COL 5–3 CAR | 2G 0A 7S | 1G 1A 7S |
| 2025-10-23 | COL 4–5 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2025-01-25 | NYI 3–2 CAR | 1G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2024-12-17 | NYI 0–4 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2024-12-07 | NYI 4–3 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2024-04-30 · PO | NYI 3–6 CAR | 1G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-04-27 · PO | NYI 3–2 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-04-25 · PO | NYI 2–3 CAR | 1G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2024-04-22 · PO | NYI 3–5 CAR | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2024-04-20 · PO | NYI 1–3 CAR | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-03-19 | NYI 1–4 CAR | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2023-12-23 | NYI 5–4 CAR | 1G 1A 4S | 1G 0A 1S |
Latest 12 of 41 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Brock Nelson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows the most FP to CLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL1.6 ptsSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Sebastian Aho
3games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs FLAOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs WSHLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ PHIB2B2.2 ptsOpp allows 5th-most FP to CSchedule edge −12.8 win%Likely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Brock Nelson or Sebastian Aho in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Sebastian Aho's 2.01. Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Brock Nelson or Sebastian Aho?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Brock Nelson leads in 18 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Nelson and Aho done against each other?
- In 41 games against each other in our data, Nelson's team went 15–26. Nelson had 30 points (16 goals) and Aho had 40 (20 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Nelson or Aho?
- Against each other, Nelson has won 59 and Aho 61 of their 120 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →