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Who to start · 2025-26

Erik Karlsson vs John Tavares

Erik KarlssonErik KarlssonPenguins · DefencevsJohn TavaresJohn TavaresMaple Leafs · Centre

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Erik Karlsson projects to 1.96 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Tavares's 1.80.

Karlsson had 66 points in 75 games; Tavares had 71 in 82 games.

This week Karlsson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Tavares has 1 left. We project Tavares for 1.7 ESPN points to Karlsson's 1.3.

Erik Karlsson has the better number in 22 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.

Karlsson's biggest edges: Plus/minus +8, Scoring chances 53.7%, Goals above expected +2.2.

Tavares's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.027, Hits 74, Penalty minutes 28.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 3 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 5 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

Erik Karlsson

1.96

fantasy points per game

John Tavares

1.80

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, Erik Karlsson has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromKarlssonTavares
Goals (+2)0.380.67
Assists (+1)0.700.49
Power-play points (+0.5)0.190.11
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.000.00
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.240.24
Hits (+0.1)0.030.09
Blocks (+0.5)0.430.22

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head: Karlsson vs Tavares

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

KarlssonTavares
5Team record in 17 meetings12
13Points in those games14

Karlsson 5G 8A, 58 SOG · Tavares 7G 7A, 61 SOG

0Hits on each other3
1Shots blocked by the other2

Karlsson blocked 1 of Tavares's shots; Tavares blocked 2 of Karlsson's.

0Penalties drawn off the other1

On the ice against each other (Karlsson's side)

15:02 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Karlsson's side

Shot attempts
18–11
62.1%
Expected goals
0.9–1.0
47.4%
Goals
2–3

Games against each other

Games between Erik Karlsson and John Tavares
DateScoreKarlssonTavares
2025-12-23PIT 3–6 TOR0G 0A 6S0G 1A 2S
2025-11-29PIT 2–7 TOR0G 0A 2S0G 0A 5S
2025-11-03PIT 3–4 TOR1G 0A 3S0G 0A 0S
2025-03-02PIT 5–6 TOR0G 2A 1S1G 0A 5S
2024-12-07PIT 5–2 TOR0G 1A 3S0G 0A 4S
2024-04-08PIT 2–3 TOR0G 0A 5S0G 1A 3S
2023-12-16PIT 0–7 TOR0G 0A 3S1G 0A 9S
2023-11-25PIT 3–2 TOR1G 0A 2S0G 1A 4S
2022-11-30SJS 1–3 TOR0G 0A 3S0G 0A 5S
2022-10-27SJS 4–3 TOR1G 2A 7S0G 1A 3S
2021-11-26SJS 1–4 TOR0G 1A 2S1G 1A 2S
2021-10-22SJS 5–3 TOR1G 0A 1S1G 0A 4S

Latest 12 of 17 meetings.

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

KarlssonTavares

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

Erik Karlsson

2games (1 left)

1.3proj. ESPN pts

  • Wed, Sep 30 @ PHI
    Opp allows 2nd-most FP to DLikely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL1.3 pts
    Opp allows 7th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)

John Tavares

3games (1 left)

1.7proj. ESPN pts

  • Tue, Sep 29 vs MTL
    Opp allows 12th-most FP to CLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
  • Wed, Sep 30 vs NYIB2B
    Opp allows 13th-most FP to CSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Ilya Sorokin (.906)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs OTT1.7 pts
    Likely vs Linus Ullmark (.891)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Erik Karlsson or John Tavares in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Erik Karlsson projects to 1.96 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Tavares's 1.80. Karlsson had 66 points in 75 games; Tavares had 71 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Erik Karlsson or John Tavares?
On 2025-26 numbers, Erik Karlsson leads in 22 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have Karlsson and Tavares done against each other?
In 17 games against each other in our data, Karlsson's team went 5–12. Karlsson had 13 points (5 goals) and Tavares had 14 (7 goals).

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →