Who to start · 2025-26
Erik Karlsson vs Pavel Buchnevich
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Erik Karlsson projects to 1.96 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30.
Karlsson had 66 points in 75 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games.
This week Karlsson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Buchnevich has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Buchnevich for 1.5 ESPN points to Karlsson's 1.3.
Erik Karlsson has the better number in 23 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Karlsson's biggest edges: Top skating speed 23.7, 20+ mph bursts 153, Luck Meter +53.
Buchnevich's biggest edges: Blocked shots 40, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.022, Penalty minutes 26.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 3 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Erik Karlsson
1.96
fantasy points per game
Pavel Buchnevich
1.30
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Erik Karlsson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Karlsson | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.38 | 0.46 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.70 | 0.32 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.43 | 0.23 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Karlsson vs Buchnevich
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Karlsson 1G 10A, 33 SOG · Buchnevich 2G 12A, 21 SOG
Karlsson blocked 2 of Buchnevich's shots; Buchnevich blocked 0 of Karlsson's.
On the ice against each other (Karlsson's side)
6:14 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from Karlsson's side
- Shot attempts
- 3–6
- 33.3%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.1
- 80.0%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Karlsson | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-27 | PIT 6–3 STL | 0G 3A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-04-03 | PIT 4–5 STL | 0G 1A 4S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2025-03-13 | PIT 5–3 STL | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2023-12-30 | PIT 4–2 STL | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-03-09 | SJS 2–4 STL | 1G 0A 6S | 0G 2A 2S |
| 2023-03-02 | SJS 3–6 STL | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 4A 1S |
| 2022-11-10 | SJS 3–5 STL | 0G 2A 5S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2021-11-18 | SJS 1–4 STL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2019-12-12 | SJS 3–6 NYR | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2018-10-11 | SJS 2–3 NYR | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2018-02-17 | OTT 6–3 NYR | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2017-12-13 | OTT 3–2 NYR | 0G 0A 4S | 1G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 13 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Erik Karlsson
2games (1 left)
1.3proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ PHIOpp allows 2nd-most FP to DLikely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL1.3 ptsOpp allows 7th-fewest FP to Dvs Jakub Dobes (.901)
Pavel Buchnevich
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DALOpp allows 11th-most FP to LWLikely vs Jake Oettinger (.899)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ COLB2B1.5 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to LWSchedule edge −13.4 win%Likely vs Scott Wedgewood (.921)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Erik Karlsson or Pavel Buchnevich in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Erik Karlsson projects to 1.96 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30. Karlsson had 66 points in 75 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Erik Karlsson or Pavel Buchnevich?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Erik Karlsson leads in 23 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Karlsson and Buchnevich done against each other?
- In 13 games against each other in our data, Karlsson's team went 5–8. Karlsson had 11 points (1 goals) and Buchnevich had 14 (2 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →