Who to start · 2025-26
Erik Karlsson vs Tomas Hertl
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Erik Karlsson projects to 1.96 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tomas Hertl's 1.88.
Karlsson had 66 points in 75 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games.
This week Karlsson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Hertl has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Hertl for 2.0 ESPN points to Karlsson's 1.3.
Tomas Hertl has the better number in 19 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Karlsson's biggest edges: Luck Meter +54, Goals above expected +2.2, On-ice PDO 1017.
Hertl's biggest edges: Hits 114, Ascension score 61, Blocked shots 45.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 3 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Erik Karlsson
1.96
fantasy points per game
Tomas Hertl
1.88
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Erik Karlsson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Karlsson | Hertl |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.38 | 0.63 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.70 | 0.37 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.43 | 0.30 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Karlsson vs Hertl
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Karlsson 1G 6A, 15 SOG · Hertl 3G 3A, 16 SOG
Karlsson blocked 0 of Hertl's shots; Hertl blocked 1 of Karlsson's.
Goals each scored with the other picking up an assist (as teammates).
On the ice against each other (Karlsson's side)
10:35 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Karlsson's side
- Shot attempts
- 10–11
- 47.6%
- Expected goals
- 0.3–0.7
- 27.6%
- Goals
- 1–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Karlsson | Hertl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | PIT 2–6 VGK | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-03-01 | PIT 5–0 VGK | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-03-11 | PIT 3–2 VGK | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-03-07 | PIT 0–4 VGK | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2023-11-04 | PIT 10–2 SJS | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2018-01-05 | OTT 6–5 SJS | 0G 2A 2S | 2G 0A 5S |
| 2017-12-09 | OTT 0–5 SJS | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 3S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Erik Karlsson
2games (1 left)
1.3proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ PHIOpp allows 2nd-most FP to DLikely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL1.3 ptsOpp allows 7th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
Tomas Hertl
3games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANALikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.0 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Erik Karlsson or Tomas Hertl in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Erik Karlsson projects to 1.96 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tomas Hertl's 1.88. Karlsson had 66 points in 75 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Erik Karlsson or Tomas Hertl?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tomas Hertl leads in 19 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Karlsson and Hertl done against each other?
- In 7 games against each other in our data, Karlsson's team went 4–3. Karlsson had 7 points (1 goals) and Hertl had 6 (3 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →