Who to start · 2025-26
Ivan Provorov vs Noah Cates
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Ivan Provorov projects to 1.56 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33.
Provorov had 31 points in 82 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games.
This week Provorov has 1 game left; Cates has 1 left. We project Provorov for 1.6 ESPN points to Cates's 1.5.
Noah Cates has the better number in 22 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Provorov's biggest edges: Hardest shot 97.1, 20+ mph bursts 56, Ice time per game 24:49.
Cates's biggest edges: Hits 102, Offensive-zone start % 58.9%, Turnover Ledger /60 +0.031.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Ivan Provorov
1.56
fantasy points per game
Noah Cates
1.45
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Ivan Provorov has the edge.
| Points per game from | Provorov | Cates |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.22 | 0.44 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.82 | 0.31 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Provorov vs Cates
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Provorov 0G 3A, 18 SOG · Cates 2G 2A, 10 SOG
Provorov blocked 1 of Cates's shots; Cates blocked 1 of Provorov's.
Goals each scored with the other picking up an assist (as teammates).
On the ice against each other (Provorov's side)
14:43 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Provorov's side
- Shot attempts
- 25–4
- 86.2%
- Expected goals
- 0.6–0.1
- 87.8%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Provorov | Cates |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | CBJ 3–2 PHI | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-03-14 | CBJ 2–1 PHI | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2026-01-28 | CBJ 5–3 PHI | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-04-15 | CBJ 3–0 PHI | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-01-14 | CBJ 3–2 PHI | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-12-21 | CBJ 4–5 PHI | 0G 1A 0S | 1G 1A 1S |
| 2024-12-10 | CBJ 3–5 PHI | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2024-04-06 | CBJ 6–2 PHI | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2023-11-19 | CBJ 2–5 PHI | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-10-12 | CBJ 2–4 PHI | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Ivan Provorov
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Thu, Oct 1 vs BUF
- Sat, Oct 3 vs UTA1.6 pts
Noah Cates
3games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Wed, Sep 30 vs PIT
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NJDB2B
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CAR1.5 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Ivan Provorov or Noah Cates in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Ivan Provorov projects to 1.56 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33. Provorov had 31 points in 82 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Ivan Provorov or Noah Cates?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Noah Cates leads in 22 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Provorov and Cates done against each other?
- In 10 games against each other in our data, Provorov's team went 6–4. Provorov had 3 points (0 goals) and Cates had 4 (2 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →