Who to start · 2025-26
Jake Guentzel vs John Carlson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Jake Guentzel projects to 2.21 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10.
Guentzel had 88 points in 81 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games.
This week Guentzel has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Carlson has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Carlson for 1.6 ESPN points to Guentzel's 1.5.
Jake Guentzel has the better number in 24 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Guentzel's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.005, Penalty minutes 61, Shorthanded points 2.
Carlson's biggest edges: Hardest shot 99.8, Transition attempts /60 0.96, Top skating speed 22.5.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Jake Guentzel
2.21
fantasy points per game
John Carlson
2.10
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Jake Guentzel has the edge.
| Points per game from | Guentzel | Carlson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.88 | 0.37 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.58 | 0.61 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.24 | 0.76 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Guentzel vs Carlson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Guentzel 18G 26A, 103 SOG · Carlson 8G 17A, 88 SOG
Guentzel blocked 4 of Carlson's shots; Carlson blocked 3 of Guentzel's.
On the ice against each other (Guentzel's side)
17:52 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Guentzel's side
- Shot attempts
- 13–19
- 40.6%
- Expected goals
- 1.0–0.8
- 54.9%
- Goals
- 2–1
On the ice together
3:33 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2026-27
- Shot attempts
- 5–4
- 55.6%
- Expected goals
- 0.0–0.3
- 0.3%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Guentzel | Carlson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | TBL 5–3 WSH | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-11-08 | TBL 3–2 WSH | 1G 1A 1S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2025-10-14 | TBL 2–3 WSH | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2025-03-01 | TBL 3–1 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-11-27 | TBL 4–5 WSH | 0G 1A 2S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2024-10-26 | TBL 3–0 WSH | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-04-05 | CAR 4–2 WSH | 2G 1A 4S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2024-03-22 | CAR 6–7 WSH | 0G 3A 4S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2024-01-02 | PIT 3–4 WSH | 1G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-10-13 | PIT 4–0 WSH | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-03-25 | PIT 4–3 WSH | 1G 0A 7S | 0G 1A 7S |
| 2022-04-09 | PIT 3–6 WSH | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 2A 4S |
Latest 12 of 34 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Jake Guentzel
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 15th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.5 ptsOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.6 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Jake Guentzel or John Carlson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Jake Guentzel projects to 2.21 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10. Guentzel had 88 points in 81 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Jake Guentzel or John Carlson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Jake Guentzel leads in 24 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Guentzel and Carlson done against each other?
- In 34 games against each other in our data, Guentzel's team went 18–16. Guentzel had 44 points (18 goals) and Carlson had 25 (8 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →