Who to start · 2025-26
John Carlson vs J.T. Miller
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to J.T. Miller's 1.63.
Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Miller had 53 in 68 games.
This week Carlson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Miller has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Carlson for 1.6 ESPN points to Miller's 1.5.
John Carlson has the better number in 19 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Carlson's biggest edges: Luck Meter +52, Transition attempts /60 0.96, Goals above expected +2.6.
Miller's biggest edges: Hits 123, 20+ mph bursts 147, Forecheck xG /60 0.40.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 3 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 5 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
John Carlson
2.10
fantasy points per game
J.T. Miller
1.63
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, John Carlson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Carlson | Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.61 | 0.44 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.76 | 0.26 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Carlson vs Miller
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Carlson 3G 13A, 74 SOG · Miller 3G 9A, 48 SOG
Carlson's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 0–0 · Carlson's defensive zone 0–1 (2019-20)
Carlson blocked 4 of Miller's shots; Miller blocked 2 of Carlson's.
On the ice against each other (Carlson's side)
6:29 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26 to 2026-27, from Carlson's side
- Shot attempts
- 11–4
- 73.3%
- Expected goals
- 0.2–0.2
- 44.8%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Carlson | Miller |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | TBL 1–5 NYR | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-10-12 | WSH 1–0 NYR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-03-05 | WSH 3–2 NYR | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-01-25 | WSH 1–2 VAN | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2025-01-08 | WSH 2–1 VAN | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-03-16 | WSH 2–1 VAN | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-02-11 | WSH 2–3 VAN | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2022-11-29 | WSH 5–1 VAN | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2022-10-17 | WSH 6–4 VAN | 1G 1A 3S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2022-03-11 | WSH 4–3 VAN | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 2A 0S |
| 2019-11-23 | WSH 1–2 VAN | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 7S |
| 2019-10-25 | WSH 6–5 VAN | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 3S |
Latest 12 of 24 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.6 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
J.T. Miller
4games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 @ BOSOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
- Thu, Oct 1 vs TBLOpp allows 11th-most FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DETB2BOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs John Gibson (.901)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs UTA1.5 ptsOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start John Carlson or J.T. Miller in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to J.T. Miller's 1.63. Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Miller had 53 in 68 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, John Carlson or J.T. Miller?
- On 2025-26 numbers, John Carlson leads in 19 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Carlson and Miller done against each other?
- In 24 games against each other in our data, Carlson's team went 14–10. Carlson had 16 points (3 goals) and Miller had 12 (3 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Carlson or Miller?
- Against each other, Carlson has won 0 and Miller 1 of their 1 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →