Who to start · 2025-26
John Carlson vs Sebastian Aho
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Sebastian Aho's 2.01.
Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games.
This week Carlson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Aho has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Aho for 2.2 ESPN points to Carlson's 1.6.
Sebastian Aho has the better number in 24 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Carlson's biggest edges: Goals above expected +2.6, Luck Meter +52, Top skating speed 22.5.
Aho's biggest edges: Hits 63, Penalty minutes 46, Shorthanded points 6.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 6 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
John Carlson
2.10
fantasy points per game
Sebastian Aho
2.01
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, John Carlson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Carlson | Aho |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.37 | 0.72 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.76 | 0.16 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Carlson vs Aho
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Carlson 6G 27A, 86 SOG · Aho 15G 17A, 101 SOG
Carlson blocked 6 of Aho's shots; Aho blocked 2 of Carlson's.
On the ice against each other (Carlson's side)
16:56 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Carlson's side
- Shot attempts
- 22–22
- 50.0%
- Expected goals
- 1.8–1.2
- 58.7%
- Goals
- 1–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Carlson | Aho |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | WSH 4–3 CAR | 0G 1A 2S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2025-12-11 | WSH 2–3 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-11-11 | WSH 4–1 CAR | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-05-15 · PO | WSH 1–3 CAR | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-05-12 · PO | WSH 2–5 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2025-05-10 · PO | WSH 0–4 CAR | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-05-08 · PO | WSH 3–1 CAR | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-05-06 · PO | WSH 1–2 CAR | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2025-04-10 | WSH 5–4 CAR | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-04-02 | WSH 1–5 CAR | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2024-12-20 | WSH 3–1 CAR | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2024-11-03 | WSH 2–4 CAR | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 7S |
Latest 12 of 39 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.6 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Sebastian Aho
3games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs WSHOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ PHIB2B2.2 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to CSchedule edge −12.8 win%Likely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start John Carlson or Sebastian Aho in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Sebastian Aho's 2.01. Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, John Carlson or Sebastian Aho?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Sebastian Aho leads in 24 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Carlson and Aho done against each other?
- In 39 games against each other in our data, Carlson's team went 21–18. Carlson had 33 points (6 goals) and Aho had 32 (15 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →