Who to start · 2025-26
John Carlson vs Thomas Harley
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Thomas Harley's 1.82.
Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Harley had 36 in 70 games.
This week Carlson has 1 game left; Harley has 1 left. We project Carlson for 2.1 ESPN points to Harley's 1.9.
John Carlson has the better number in 25 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Carlson's biggest edges: Goals above expected +2.6, Hardest shot 99.8, Corsi 54.5%.
Harley's biggest edges: Blocked shots 148, Hits 39, 20+ mph bursts 50.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
John Carlson
2.10
fantasy points per game
Thomas Harley
1.82
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, John Carlson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Carlson | Harley |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.37 | 0.16 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.61 | 0.40 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.76 | 0.99 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Carlson vs Harley
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2023-24 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Carlson 0G 3A, 10 SOG · Harley 2G 1A, 12 SOG
Carlson blocked 0 of Harley's shots; Harley blocked 1 of Carlson's.
On the ice against each other (Carlson's side)
11:08 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Carlson's side
- Shot attempts
- 7–9
- 43.8%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.2
- 70.9%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Carlson | Harley |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-07 | WSH 1–4 DAL | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-10-28 | WSH 0–1 DAL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-10-17 | WSH 3–2 DAL | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-01-27 | WSH 4–5 DAL | 0G 1A 3S | 2G 0A 4S |
| 2023-12-07 | WSH 4–5 DAL | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 4S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
2.1proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYR
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH2.1 ptsSchedule edge +9.3 win%
Thomas Harley
2games (1 left)
1.9proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs STL
- Sat, Oct 3 @ NSHB2B1.9 ptsSchedule edge −9.3 win%
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start John Carlson or Thomas Harley in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Thomas Harley's 1.82. Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Harley had 36 in 70 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, John Carlson or Thomas Harley?
- On 2025-26 numbers, John Carlson leads in 25 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Carlson and Harley done against each other?
- In 5 games against each other in our data, Carlson's team went 1–4. Carlson had 3 points (0 goals) and Harley had 3 (2 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →