Who to start · 2025-26
John Carlson vs Vladimir Tarasenko
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Vladimir Tarasenko's 1.52.
Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Tarasenko had 47 in 75 games.
This week Carlson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Tarasenko has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Carlson for 1.6 ESPN points to Tarasenko's 1.2.
John Carlson has the better number in 23 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Carlson's biggest edges: Corsi 54.5%, Faceoffs won 0, Fenwick 54.3%.
Tarasenko's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.018, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.37, Hits 60.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
John Carlson
2.14
fantasy points per game
Vladimir Tarasenko
1.52
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, John Carlson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Carlson | Tarasenko |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.39 | 0.61 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.65 | 0.32 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.75 | 0.22 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Carlson vs Tarasenko
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Carlson 4G 9A, 29 SOG · Tarasenko 7G 7A, 30 SOG
Carlson blocked 3 of Tarasenko's shots; Tarasenko blocked 2 of Carlson's.
On the ice against each other (Carlson's side)
15:00 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Carlson's side
- Shot attempts
- 25–9
- 73.5%
- Expected goals
- 1.4–0.6
- 68.8%
- Goals
- 0–2
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Carlson | Tarasenko |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | ANA 2–3 MIN | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2025-12-16 | WSH 0–5 MIN | 0G 0A 1S | 2G 1A 4S |
| 2025-10-17 | WSH 5–1 MIN | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-03-18 | WSH 4–1 DET | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-03-07 | WSH 5–2 DET | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-12-29 | WSH 2–4 DET | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-02-26 | WSH 6–3 OTT | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2023-10-18 | WSH 1–6 OTT | 1G 0A 3S | 1G 1A 1S |
| 2023-04-02 | WSH 2–5 NYR | 0G 2A 2S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2022-11-17 | WSH 4–5 STL | 2G 0A 5S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2019-10-02 | WSH 3–2 STL | 0G 2A 0S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2019-01-14 | WSH 1–4 STL | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 1A 2S |
Latest 12 of 14 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.6 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Vladimir Tarasenko
2games (1 left)
1.2proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NSHOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to RWLikely vs Juuse Saros (.893)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs BOS1.2 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to RWSchedule edge +12.8 win%Likely vs Michael DiPietro (1.000)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start John Carlson or Vladimir Tarasenko in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Vladimir Tarasenko's 1.52. Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Tarasenko had 47 in 75 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, John Carlson or Vladimir Tarasenko?
- On 2025-26 numbers, John Carlson leads in 23 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Carlson and Tarasenko done against each other?
- In 14 games against each other in our data, Carlson's team went 7–7. Carlson had 13 points (4 goals) and Tarasenko had 14 (7 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →