Who to start · 2025-26
J.T. Miller vs Pavel Buchnevich
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, J.T. Miller projects to 1.63 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30.
Miller had 53 points in 68 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games.
This week Miller has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Buchnevich has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Miller for 1.5 ESPN points to Buchnevich's 1.5.
J.T. Miller has the better number in 22 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Miller's biggest edges: Faceoff win % 61.5%, Draw Equity /100 +0.123, Hits 123.
Buchnevich's biggest edges: Goals above expected −0.4, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.022, On-ice PDO 1000.
- • 2026-27 so far: 3 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 5 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
J.T. Miller
1.63
fantasy points per game
Pavel Buchnevich
1.30
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, J.T. Miller has the edge.
| Points per game from | Miller | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.18 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Miller vs Buchnevich
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Miller 6G 8A, 42 SOG · Buchnevich 3G 5A, 38 SOG
Miller's offensive zone 1–0 · neutral 3–1 · Miller's defensive zone 0–0 (2018-19 to 2024-25)
Miller blocked 1 of Buchnevich's shots; Buchnevich blocked 0 of Miller's.
Goals each scored with the other picking up an assist (as teammates).
On the ice against each other (Miller's side)
6:02 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from Miller's side
- Shot attempts
- 6–11
- 35.3%
- Expected goals
- 0.3–0.6
- 30.5%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Miller | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-18 | NYR 2–1 STL | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-01-27 | VAN 5–2 STL | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-01-24 | VAN 3–4 STL | 0G 1A 0S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2024-01-04 | VAN 1–2 STL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2023-10-27 | VAN 5–0 STL | 1G 2A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-03-28 | VAN 5–6 STL | 0G 2A 2S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2023-02-23 | VAN 3–2 STL | 1G 1A 5S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2022-12-19 | VAN 1–5 STL | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-03-30 | VAN 3–4 STL | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-03-28 | VAN 1–4 STL | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2020-01-04 | VAN 2–1 NYR | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2019-10-20 | VAN 3–2 NYR | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 16 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
J.T. Miller
4games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 @ BOSOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
- Thu, Oct 1 vs TBLOpp allows 11th-most FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DETB2BOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs John Gibson (.901)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs UTA1.5 ptsOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)
Pavel Buchnevich
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DALOpp allows 11th-most FP to LWLikely vs Jake Oettinger (.899)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ COLB2B1.5 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to LWSchedule edge −13.4 win%Likely vs Scott Wedgewood (.921)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start J.T. Miller or Pavel Buchnevich in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, J.T. Miller projects to 1.63 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30. Miller had 53 points in 68 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, J.T. Miller or Pavel Buchnevich?
- On 2025-26 numbers, J.T. Miller leads in 22 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Miller and Buchnevich done against each other?
- In 16 games against each other in our data, Miller's team went 10–6. Miller had 14 points (6 goals) and Buchnevich had 8 (3 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Miller or Buchnevich?
- Against each other, Miller has won 4 and Buchnevich 1 of their 5 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →