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Who to start · 2025-26

J.T. Miller vs Tom Wilson

J.T. MillerJ.T. MillerRangers · CentrevsTom WilsonTom WilsonCapitals · Right wing

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to J.T. Miller's 1.63.

Miller had 53 points in 68 games; Wilson had 62 in 72 games.

This week Miller has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Wilson has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Wilson for 2.3 ESPN points to Miller's 1.5.

Tom Wilson has the better number in 22 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.

Miller's biggest edges: Faceoffs won 547, Offensive-zone time 44.9%, Net penalties drawn /60 −0.31.

Wilson's biggest edges: Plus/minus +15, Luck Meter +40, Goals above expected +2.0.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 3 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 5 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

J.T. Miller

1.63

fantasy points per game

Tom Wilson

2.24

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, Tom Wilson has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromMillerWilson
Goals (+2)0.420.78
Assists (+1)0.440.48
Power-play points (+0.5)0.120.08
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.010.01
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.200.20
Hits (+0.1)0.180.25
Blocks (+0.5)0.260.44

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head: Miller vs Wilson

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

MillerWilson
11Team record in 23 meetings12
14Points in those games14

Miller 4G 10A, 50 SOG · Wilson 5G 9A, 30 SOG

3Faceoffs against each other2

Miller's offensive zone 2–0 · neutral 0–1 · Miller's defensive zone 1–1 (2017-18 to 2019-20)

5Hits on each other3
0Shots blocked by the other1

Miller blocked 0 of Wilson's shots; Wilson blocked 1 of Miller's.

1Penalties drawn off the other0

On the ice against each other (Miller's side)

13:36 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Miller's side

Shot attempts
20–11
64.5%
Expected goals
1.2–0.2
84.0%
Goals
1–1

Games against each other

Games between J.T. Miller and Tom Wilson
DateScoreMillerWilson
2026-04-05NYR 8–1 WSH1G 1A 2S0G 1A 1S
2025-10-12NYR 0–1 WSH0G 0A 3S0G 0A 1S
2025-03-05NYR 2–3 WSH0G 0A 0S1G 1A 3S
2025-01-25VAN 2–1 WSH0G 0A 4S0G 0A 2S
2025-01-08VAN 1–2 WSH0G 0A 3S0G 0A 0S
2024-03-16VAN 1–2 WSH0G 0A 2S1G 0A 1S
2024-02-11VAN 3–2 WSH1G 0A 3S0G 0A 2S
2022-03-11VAN 3–4 WSH0G 2A 0S0G 1A 1S
2022-01-16VAN 4–2 WSH1G 1A 4S1G 0A 3S
2019-11-23VAN 2–1 WSH0G 1A 7S0G 0A 3S
2019-10-25VAN 5–6 WSH0G 1A 3S0G 0A 1S
2019-03-30TBL 3–6 WSH1G 1A 1S0G 1A 0S

Latest 12 of 23 meetings.

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

MillerWilson

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

J.T. Miller

4games (1 left)

1.5proj. ESPN pts

  • Tue, Sep 29 @ BOS
    Opp allows 5th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
  • Thu, Oct 1 vs TBL
    Opp allows 11th-most FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
  • Fri, Oct 2 @ DETB2B
    Opp allows 4th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs John Gibson (.901)
  • Sun, Oct 4 vs UTA1.5 pts
    Opp allows 2nd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)

Tom Wilson

2games (1 left)

2.3proj. ESPN pts

  • Fri, Oct 2 @ CAR
    Opp allows 11th-most FP to RWLikely vs Brandon Bussi (.895)
  • Sat, Oct 3 @ TBLB2B2.3 pts
    Opp allows the most FP to RWSchedule edge −13.3 win%vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start J.T. Miller or Tom Wilson in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to J.T. Miller's 1.63. Miller had 53 points in 68 games; Wilson had 62 in 72 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, J.T. Miller or Tom Wilson?
On 2025-26 numbers, Tom Wilson leads in 22 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have Miller and Wilson done against each other?
In 23 games against each other in our data, Miller's team went 11–12. Miller had 14 points (4 goals) and Wilson had 14 (5 goals).
Who wins more faceoffs, Miller or Wilson?
Against each other, Miller has won 3 and Wilson 2 of their 5 head-to-head draws.

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →