Who to start · 2025-26
J.T. Miller vs Tomas Hertl
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tomas Hertl projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to J.T. Miller's 1.63.
Miller had 53 points in 68 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games.
This week Miller has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Hertl has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Hertl for 2.0 ESPN points to Miller's 1.5.
Tomas Hertl has the better number in 23 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Miller's biggest edges: Forecheck xG /60 0.40, 20+ mph bursts 147, Top skating speed 22.8.
Hertl's biggest edges: Ascension score 61, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.010, Expected goals 55.2%.
Head to head on the dot, Miller leads Hertl 41–33.
- • 2026-27 so far: 3 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 5 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
J.T. Miller
1.63
fantasy points per game
Tomas Hertl
1.88
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Tomas Hertl has the edge.
| Points per game from | Miller | Hertl |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.42 | 0.63 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Miller vs Hertl
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Miller 7G 25A, 42 SOG · Hertl 8G 11A, 49 SOG
Miller's offensive zone 15–9 · neutral 10–7 · Miller's defensive zone 16–17 (2017-18 to 2025-26)
Miller blocked 2 of Hertl's shots; Hertl blocked 0 of Miller's.
On the ice against each other (Miller's side)
6:50 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Miller's side
- Shot attempts
- 7–6
- 53.8%
- Expected goals
- 0.4–0.1
- 73.3%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Miller | Hertl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | NYR 2–3 VGK | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2025-11-18 | NYR 2–3 VGK | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 2A 2S |
| 2025-02-02 | NYR 4–2 VGK | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-12-19 | VAN 1–3 VGK | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-04-08 | VAN 4–3 VGK | 0G 3A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2023-12-23 | VAN 7–4 SJS | 0G 2A 0S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2023-11-25 | VAN 3–4 SJS | 0G 3A 1S | 0G 2A 0S |
| 2023-11-20 | VAN 3–1 SJS | 1G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2023-11-02 | VAN 10–1 SJS | 1G 2A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-03-23 | VAN 7–2 SJS | 1G 1A 2S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2022-12-27 | VAN 6–2 SJS | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2022-12-07 | VAN 6–5 SJS | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 2A 7S |
Latest 12 of 23 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
J.T. Miller
4games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 @ BOSOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
- Thu, Oct 1 vs TBLOpp allows 11th-most FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DETB2BOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs John Gibson (.901)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs UTA1.5 ptsOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)
Tomas Hertl
3games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 8th-most FP to CLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANAOpp allows 9th-most FP to CLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.0 ptsOpp allows 6th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start J.T. Miller or Tomas Hertl in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tomas Hertl projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to J.T. Miller's 1.63. Miller had 53 points in 68 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, J.T. Miller or Tomas Hertl?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tomas Hertl leads in 23 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Miller and Hertl done against each other?
- In 23 games against each other in our data, Miller's team went 17–6. Miller had 32 points (7 goals) and Hertl had 19 (8 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Miller or Hertl?
- Against each other, Miller has won 41 and Hertl 33 of their 74 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →