Who to start · 2025-26
Mathew Barzal vs Tom Wilson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mathew Barzal's 1.82.
Barzal had 72 points in 81 games; Wilson had 62 in 72 games.
This week Barzal has 1 game left; Wilson has 1 left. We project Wilson for 1.9 ESPN points to Barzal's 1.8.
Tom Wilson has the better number in 19 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Barzal's biggest edges: Offensive-zone start % 62.4%, Net penalties drawn /60 −0.02, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.030.
Wilson's biggest edges: Hits 179, Hardest shot 91.2, Goals above expected +2.0.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Mathew Barzal
1.82
fantasy points per game
Tom Wilson
2.20
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Tom Wilson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Barzal | Wilson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.47 | 0.83 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.65 | 0.44 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.25 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Barzal vs Wilson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Barzal 6G 16A, 63 SOG · Wilson 10G 9A, 68 SOG
Barzal blocked 1 of Wilson's shots; Wilson blocked 1 of Barzal's.
On the ice against each other (Barzal's side)
26:55 at 5-on-5 over 4 games, 2025-26, from Barzal's side
- Shot attempts
- 26–26
- 50.0%
- Expected goals
- 1.1–2.0
- 36.4%
- Goals
- 1–3
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Barzal | Wilson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | NYI 1–4 WSH | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-11-30 | NYI 1–4 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 2G 1A 3S |
| 2025-10-31 | NYI 3–1 WSH | 1G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2025-10-11 | NYI 2–4 WSH | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2023-12-29 | NYI 5–1 WSH | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-12-20 | NYI 2–3 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-11-11 | NYI 1–4 WSH | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-11-02 | NYI 3–0 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-01-16 | NYI 3–4 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 7S |
| 2022-04-26 | NYI 4–1 WSH | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2022-03-15 | NYI 3–4 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-01-15 | NYI 0–2 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 3S |
Latest 12 of 31 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Mathew Barzal
2games (1 left)
1.8proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ TORSchedule edge +9.3 win%
- Sat, Oct 3 vs NJD1.8 pts
Tom Wilson
2games (1 left)
1.9proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ CAR
- Sat, Oct 3 @ TBLB2B1.9 ptsSchedule edge −9.3 win%
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Mathew Barzal or Tom Wilson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mathew Barzal's 1.82. Barzal had 72 points in 81 games; Wilson had 62 in 72 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Mathew Barzal or Tom Wilson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tom Wilson leads in 19 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Barzal and Wilson done against each other?
- In 31 games against each other in our data, Barzal's team went 12–19. Barzal had 22 points (6 goals) and Wilson had 19 (10 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →