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Who to start · 2025-26

Mattias Samuelsson vs Noah Cates

Mattias SamuelssonMattias SamuelssonSabres · DefencevsNoah CatesNoah CatesFlyers · Left wing

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Mattias Samuelsson projects to 2.01 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33.

Samuelsson had 41 points in 78 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games.

This week Samuelsson has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Cates has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Samuelsson for 2.0 ESPN points to Cates's 1.5.

Noah Cates has the better number in 19 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.

Samuelsson's biggest edges: 20+ mph bursts 93, Hardest shot 98.1, Goals above expected +4.6.

Cates's biggest edges: Power-play share 44.7%, Turnover Ledger /60 +0.031, Power-play time per game 2:02.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

Mattias Samuelsson

2.01

fantasy points per game

Noah Cates

1.33

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, Mattias Samuelsson has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromSamuelssonCates
Goals (+2)0.440.39
Assists (+1)0.340.31
Power-play points (+0.5)0.000.05
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.020.01
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.140.16
Hits (+0.1)0.160.11
Blocks (+0.5)0.930.30

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head: Samuelsson vs Cates

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

SamuelssonCates
7Team record in 11 meetings4
5Points in those games13

Samuelsson 1G 4A, 10 SOG · Cates 5G 8A, 18 SOG

1Hits on each other3

On the ice against each other (Samuelsson's side)

11:43 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Samuelsson's side

Shot attempts
6–10
37.5%
Expected goals
0.1–0.6
19.3%
Goals
0–2

Games against each other

Games between Mattias Samuelsson and Noah Cates
DateScoreSamuelssonCates
2026-01-14BUF 5–2 PHI1G 0A 1S0G 1A 1S
2025-12-18BUF 5–3 PHI0G 2A 1S1G 0A 2S
2025-12-03BUF 2–5 PHI0G 0A 3S1G 1A 5S
2025-04-17BUF 5–4 PHI0G 0A 0S0G 1A 1S
2025-03-29BUF 4–7 PHI0G 0A 0S1G 2A 1S
2023-11-03BUF 1–5 PHI0G 0A 0S0G 0A 0S
2023-11-01BUF 5–2 PHI0G 0A 0S0G 0A 2S
2023-04-01BUF 6–3 PHI0G 1A 0S0G 1A 2S
2023-01-09BUF 0–4 PHI0G 0A 1S1G 0A 3S
2022-04-17BUF 5–3 PHI0G 1A 4S1G 1A 1S
2022-04-16BUF 4–3 PHI0G 0A 0S0G 1A 0S

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

SamuelssonCates

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

Mattias Samuelsson

2games (1 left)

2.0proj. ESPN pts

  • Thu, Oct 1 @ CBJ
    Opp allows 10th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Jet Greaves (.908)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs CHI2.0 pts
    Opp allows 4th-most FP to DLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)

Noah Cates

3games (1 left)

1.5proj. ESPN pts

  • Wed, Sep 30 vs PIT
    Opp allows the fewest FP to LWLikely vs Arturs Silovs (.888)
  • Thu, Oct 1 @ NJDB2B
    Opp allows 9th-fewest FP to LWSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Jake Allen (.904)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs CAR1.5 pts
    Opp allows 9th-most FP to LWSchedule edge +9.0 win%Likely vs Pyotr Kochetkov (.899)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Mattias Samuelsson or Noah Cates in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Mattias Samuelsson projects to 2.01 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33. Samuelsson had 41 points in 78 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Mattias Samuelsson or Noah Cates?
On 2025-26 numbers, Noah Cates leads in 19 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have Samuelsson and Cates done against each other?
In 11 games against each other in our data, Samuelsson's team went 7–4. Samuelsson had 5 points (1 goals) and Cates had 13 (5 goals).

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →