Who to start · 2025-26
Mattias Samuelsson vs Tyler Toffoli
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Mattias Samuelsson projects to 2.01 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35.
Samuelsson had 41 points in 78 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games.
This week Samuelsson has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Toffoli has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Samuelsson for 2.0 ESPN points to Toffoli's 1.5.
Mattias Samuelsson has the better number in 21 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Samuelsson's biggest edges: Plus/minus +41, Top skating speed 22.8, Faceoffs won 0.
Toffoli's biggest edges: Offensive-zone time 45.2%, Power-play share 58.1%, Power-play time per game 2:53.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Mattias Samuelsson
2.01
fantasy points per game
Tyler Toffoli
1.35
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Mattias Samuelsson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Samuelsson | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.93 | 0.18 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Samuelsson vs Toffoli
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Samuelsson 0G 3A, 8 SOG · Toffoli 5G 4A, 27 SOG
Samuelsson blocked 2 of Toffoli's shots; Toffoli blocked 0 of Samuelsson's.
On the ice against each other (Samuelsson's side)
4:51 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Samuelsson's side
- Shot attempts
- 1–5
- 16.7%
- Expected goals
- 0.0–0.1
- 3.3%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Samuelsson | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | BUF 5–0 SJS | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-03-10 | BUF 6–3 SJS | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2025-03-04 | BUF 2–6 SJS | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 1A 4S |
| 2023-11-25 | BUF 2–7 NJD | 0G 0A 1S | 2G 0A 4S |
| 2023-10-27 | BUF 4–5 NJD | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2023-02-11 | BUF 2–7 CGY | 0G 0A 0S | 2G 1A 5S |
| 2022-10-20 | BUF 6–3 CGY | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 5S |
| 2022-03-18 | BUF 1–0 CGY | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-02-13 | BUF 5–3 MTL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Mattias Samuelsson
2games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ CBJOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Jet Greaves (.908)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CHI2.0 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to DLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
Tyler Toffoli
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.5 ptsOpp allows the most FP to CSchedule edge +3.3 win%Likely vs Anton Forsberg (.910)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Mattias Samuelsson or Tyler Toffoli in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Mattias Samuelsson projects to 2.01 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35. Samuelsson had 41 points in 78 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Mattias Samuelsson or Tyler Toffoli?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Mattias Samuelsson leads in 21 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Samuelsson and Toffoli done against each other?
- In 9 games against each other in our data, Samuelsson's team went 5–4. Samuelsson had 3 points (0 goals) and Toffoli had 9 (5 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →