Who to start · 2025-26
Morgan Frost vs Nathan MacKinnon
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Morgan Frost's 1.30.
Frost had 43 points in 82 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games.
This week Frost has 2 games left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups; MacKinnon has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Frost for 2.6 ESPN points to MacKinnon's 2.2.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 31 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Frost's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.028, Draw Equity /100 +0.083, Faceoff win % 56.8%.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Plus/minus +57, Sequence xG 59.5%, Expected goals 59.7%.
Head to head on the dot, Frost leads MacKinnon 18–13.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 2 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 2 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 8 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Morgan Frost
1.30
fantasy points per game
Nathan MacKinnon
3.32
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Nathan MacKinnon has the edge.
| Points per game from | Frost | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.50 | 1.49 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.24 | 0.87 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.17 | 0.46 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Frost vs MacKinnon
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2019-20 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Frost 0G 5A, 25 SOG · MacKinnon 6G 14A, 46 SOG
Frost's offensive zone 4–3 · neutral 6–6 · Frost's defensive zone 8–4 (2019-20 to 2025-26)
On the ice against each other (Frost's side)
7:31 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Frost's side
- Shot attempts
- 8–12
- 40.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.4–1.5
- 20.1%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Frost | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | CGY 1–3 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2026-04-09 | CGY 1–3 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 2A 6S |
| 2026-03-30 | CGY 2–9 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 2A 5S |
| 2025-03-31 | CGY 3–2 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2025-03-14 | CGY 2–4 COL | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-02-06 | CGY 2–4 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 3A 2S |
| 2024-01-20 | PHI 4–7 COL | 0G 2A 2S | 2G 2A 4S |
| 2023-12-09 | PHI 5–2 COL | 0G 1A 4S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2022-12-05 | PHI 5–3 COL | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2022-03-25 | PHI 3–6 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2021-12-06 | PHI 5–7 COL | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 8S |
| 2019-12-11 | PHI 1–3 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 4S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Morgan Frost
3games (2 left)
2.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs SEAOpp allows 6th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Joey Daccord (.897)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ VAN1.6 ptsOpp allows 6th-most FP to CSchedule edge +3.5 win%Likely vs Leevi Meriläinen (.860)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ SEAB2B1.0 ptsOpp allows 6th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Joey Daccord (.897)
Nathan MacKinnon
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows the most FP to CLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL2.2 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Morgan Frost or Nathan MacKinnon in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Morgan Frost's 1.30. Frost had 43 points in 82 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Morgan Frost or Nathan MacKinnon?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 31 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Frost and MacKinnon done against each other?
- In 12 games against each other in our data, Frost's team went 3–9. Frost had 5 points (0 goals) and MacKinnon had 20 (6 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Frost or MacKinnon?
- Against each other, Frost has won 18 and MacKinnon 13 of their 31 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →