Who to start · 2025-26
Morgan Rielly vs Pavel Buchnevich
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Morgan Rielly projects to 1.61 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30.
Rielly had 36 points in 78 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games.
This week Rielly has 1 game left; Buchnevich has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Rielly for 1.5 ESPN points to Buchnevich's 1.5.
Pavel Buchnevich has the better number in 19 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Rielly's biggest edges: Top skating speed 22.7, Transition attempts /60 0.63, Ascension score 60.
Buchnevich's biggest edges: Hardest shot 88.9, Expected goals 52.5%, Sequence xG 52.5%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 1 PPP, 2 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Morgan Rielly
1.61
fantasy points per game
Pavel Buchnevich
1.30
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Morgan Rielly has the edge.
| Points per game from | Rielly | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.25 | 0.46 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.67 | 0.23 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Rielly vs Buchnevich
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Rielly 1G 5A, 52 SOG · Buchnevich 5G 6A, 31 SOG
Rielly blocked 2 of Buchnevich's shots; Buchnevich blocked 0 of Rielly's.
On the ice against each other (Rielly's side)
8:45 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Rielly's side
- Shot attempts
- 9–8
- 52.9%
- Expected goals
- 0.2–0.7
- 23.7%
- Goals
- 1–2
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Rielly | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | TOR 1–5 STL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-11-18 | TOR 3–2 STL | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-11-02 | TOR 2–4 STL | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2024-10-24 | TOR 1–5 STL | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2023-01-03 | TOR 5–6 STL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2022-02-19 | TOR 3–6 STL | 0G 0A 2S | 2G 0A 7S |
| 2019-12-28 | TOR 4–5 NYR | 0G 0A 10S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2019-12-20 | TOR 6–3 NYR | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2019-03-23 | TOR 1–2 NYR | 0G 0A 9S | 1G 0A 5S |
| 2019-02-10 | TOR 1–4 NYR | 0G 0A 6S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2018-12-22 | TOR 5–3 NYR | 1G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2017-12-23 | TOR 3–2 NYR | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
Latest 12 of 13 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Morgan Rielly
3games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs MTLOpp allows 7th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
- Wed, Sep 30 vs NYIB2BOpp allows 16th-most FP to DSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Ilya Sorokin (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs OTT1.5 ptsLikely vs Linus Ullmark (.891)
Pavel Buchnevich
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DALOpp allows 11th-most FP to LWLikely vs Jake Oettinger (.899)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ COLB2B1.5 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to LWSchedule edge −13.4 win%Likely vs Scott Wedgewood (.921)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Morgan Rielly or Pavel Buchnevich in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Morgan Rielly projects to 1.61 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30. Rielly had 36 points in 78 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Morgan Rielly or Pavel Buchnevich?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Pavel Buchnevich leads in 19 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Rielly and Buchnevich done against each other?
- In 13 games against each other in our data, Rielly's team went 5–8. Rielly had 6 points (1 goals) and Buchnevich had 11 (5 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →