Who to start · 2025-26
Morgan Rielly vs Tomas Hertl
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tomas Hertl projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Morgan Rielly's 1.61.
Rielly had 36 points in 78 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games.
This week Rielly has 1 game left; Hertl has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Hertl for 2.0 ESPN points to Rielly's 1.5.
Tomas Hertl has the better number in 23 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Rielly's biggest edges: Goals above expected +2.9, Top skating speed 22.7, 20+ mph bursts 71.
Hertl's biggest edges: Expected goals 55.2%, Hardest shot 89.5, Sequence xG 54.7%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 1 PPP, 2 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Morgan Rielly
1.61
fantasy points per game
Tomas Hertl
1.88
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Tomas Hertl has the edge.
| Points per game from | Rielly | Hertl |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.25 | 0.63 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.67 | 0.30 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Rielly vs Hertl
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Rielly 3G 9A, 26 SOG · Hertl 3G 3A, 21 SOG
Rielly blocked 2 of Hertl's shots; Hertl blocked 1 of Rielly's.
On the ice against each other (Rielly's side)
11:48 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Rielly's side
- Shot attempts
- 10–19
- 34.5%
- Expected goals
- 1.1–1.1
- 51.3%
- Goals
- 3–2
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Rielly | Hertl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | TOR 3–6 VGK | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2026-01-15 | TOR 5–6 VGK | 1G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2025-03-05 | TOR 2–5 VGK | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 1A 1S |
| 2024-11-20 | TOR 3–0 VGK | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-01-09 | TOR 7–1 SJS | 1G 1A 6S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-01-06 | TOR 4–1 SJS | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-10-27 | TOR 3–4 SJS | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2021-11-26 | TOR 4–1 SJS | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2021-10-22 | TOR 3–5 SJS | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2019-10-25 | TOR 4–1 SJS | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2018-11-28 | TOR 5–3 SJS | 0G 1A 3S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2018-01-04 | TOR 3–2 SJS | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 13 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Morgan Rielly
3games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs MTLOpp allows 7th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
- Wed, Sep 30 vs NYIB2BOpp allows 12th-most FP to DSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Ilya Sorokin (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs OTT1.5 ptsLikely vs Linus Ullmark (.891)
Tomas Hertl
3games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANALikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.0 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Morgan Rielly or Tomas Hertl in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tomas Hertl projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Morgan Rielly's 1.61. Rielly had 36 points in 78 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Morgan Rielly or Tomas Hertl?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tomas Hertl leads in 23 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Rielly and Hertl done against each other?
- In 13 games against each other in our data, Rielly's team went 7–6. Rielly had 12 points (3 goals) and Hertl had 6 (3 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →