Who to start · 2025-26
Morgan Rielly vs Tyler Toffoli
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Morgan Rielly projects to 1.61 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35.
Rielly had 36 points in 78 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games.
This week Rielly has 1 game left; Toffoli has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Rielly for 1.5 ESPN points to Toffoli's 1.5.
Tyler Toffoli has the better number in 19 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Rielly's biggest edges: Ascension score 60, Top skating speed 22.7, Faceoffs won 0.
Toffoli's biggest edges: Hardest shot 89.2, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.004, Expected goals 47.9%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 1 PPP, 2 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Morgan Rielly
1.61
fantasy points per game
Tyler Toffoli
1.35
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Morgan Rielly has the edge.
| Points per game from | Rielly | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.67 | 0.18 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Rielly vs Toffoli
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Rielly 5G 12A, 51 SOG · Toffoli 10G 9A, 73 SOG
Rielly blocked 5 of Toffoli's shots; Toffoli blocked 1 of Rielly's.
On the ice against each other (Rielly's side)
9:32 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Rielly's side
- Shot attempts
- 9–8
- 52.9%
- Expected goals
- 0.3–0.4
- 40.8%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Rielly | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | TOR 1–4 SJS | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-12-11 | TOR 2–3 SJS | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-03-27 | TOR 5–6 SJS | 0G 0A 2S | 2G 1A 7S |
| 2025-03-03 | TOR 2–3 SJS | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2023-03-02 | TOR 2–1 CGY | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2021-10-13 | TOR 2–1 MTL | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2021-05-31 · PO | TOR 1–3 MTL | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2021-05-29 · PO | TOR 2–3 MTL | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 1A 5S |
| 2021-05-27 · PO | TOR 3–4 MTL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2021-05-25 · PO | TOR 4–0 MTL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2021-05-24 · PO | TOR 2–1 MTL | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2021-05-22 · PO | TOR 5–1 MTL | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
Latest 12 of 28 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Morgan Rielly
3games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs MTLOpp allows 7th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
- Wed, Sep 30 vs NYIB2BOpp allows 16th-most FP to DSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Ilya Sorokin (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs OTT1.5 ptsvs Linus Ullmark (.891)
Tyler Toffoli
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.5 ptsOpp allows the most FP to CSchedule edge +3.3 win%Likely vs Anton Forsberg (.910)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Morgan Rielly or Tyler Toffoli in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Morgan Rielly projects to 1.61 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35. Rielly had 36 points in 78 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Morgan Rielly or Tyler Toffoli?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tyler Toffoli leads in 19 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Rielly and Toffoli done against each other?
- In 28 games against each other in our data, Rielly's team went 16–12. Rielly had 17 points (5 goals) and Toffoli had 19 (10 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →