Who to start · 2025-26
Nathan MacKinnon vs Nikolaj Ehlers
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Nikolaj Ehlers's 1.65.
MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Ehlers had 71 in 82 games.
This week MacKinnon has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Ehlers has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project MacKinnon for 2.2 ESPN points to Ehlers's 1.8.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 26 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: On-ice PDO 1054, Faceoffs won 681, Penalty minutes 39.
Ehlers's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.024, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.44, Ascension score 52.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 2 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 8 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 6 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Nathan MacKinnon
3.32
fantasy points per game
Nikolaj Ehlers
1.65
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Nathan MacKinnon has the edge.
| Points per game from | MacKinnon | Ehlers |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 1.49 | 0.56 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.87 | 0.48 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.46 | 0.26 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: MacKinnon vs Ehlers
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
MacKinnon 14G 26A, 117 SOG · Ehlers 10G 12A, 67 SOG
MacKinnon's offensive zone 1–0 · neutral 0–0 · MacKinnon's defensive zone 0–0 (2025-26)
MacKinnon blocked 1 of Ehlers's shots; Ehlers blocked 1 of MacKinnon's.
On the ice against each other (MacKinnon's side)
13:29 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from MacKinnon's side
- Shot attempts
- 18–16
- 52.9%
- Expected goals
- 1.1–1.7
- 40.9%
- Goals
- 0–2
Games against each other
| Date | Score | MacKinnon | Ehlers |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | COL 5–3 CAR | 1G 3A 2S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2025-10-23 | COL 4–5 CAR | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-01-22 | COL 2–3 WPG | 1G 0A 7S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-01-11 | COL 0–3 WPG | 0G 0A 3S | 2G 0A 3S |
| 2024-12-31 | COL 5–2 WPG | 0G 1A 6S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-11-07 | COL 0–1 WPG | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2024-04-30 · PO | COL 6–3 WPG | 0G 2A 7S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2024-04-28 · PO | COL 5–1 WPG | 0G 2A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-04-26 · PO | COL 6–2 WPG | 1G 1A 8S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2024-04-23 · PO | COL 5–2 WPG | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2024-04-21 · PO | COL 6–7 WPG | 1G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-04-13 | COL 0–7 WPG | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 2A 2S |
Latest 12 of 24 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Nathan MacKinnon
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows the most FP to CLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL2.2 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Nikolaj Ehlers
3games (1 left)
1.8proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs FLAOpp allows 13th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs WSHOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ PHIB2B1.8 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to LWSchedule edge −8.7 win%vs Joseph Woll (.899)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Nathan MacKinnon or Nikolaj Ehlers in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Nikolaj Ehlers's 1.65. MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Ehlers had 71 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Nathan MacKinnon or Nikolaj Ehlers?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 26 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have MacKinnon and Ehlers done against each other?
- In 24 games against each other in our data, MacKinnon's team went 13–11. MacKinnon had 40 points (14 goals) and Ehlers had 22 (10 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, MacKinnon or Ehlers?
- Against each other, MacKinnon has won 1 and Ehlers 0 of their 1 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →