Who to start · 2025-26
Nathan MacKinnon vs Ryan O'Reilly
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ryan O'Reilly's 1.90.
MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; O'Reilly had 74 in 81 games.
This week MacKinnon has 1 game left; O'Reilly has 1 left. We project MacKinnon for 3.2 ESPN points to O'Reilly's 2.0.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 29 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Top skating speed 24.8, Transition attempts /60 1.83, Offensive-zone start % 71.8%.
O'Reilly's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.007, Blocked shots 66, Shorthanded points 3.
Head to head on the dot, O'Reilly leads MacKinnon 207–153.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 2 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 8 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Nathan MacKinnon
3.32
fantasy points per game
Ryan O'Reilly
1.90
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Nathan MacKinnon has the edge.
| Points per game from | MacKinnon | O'Reilly |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 1.49 | 0.58 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.87 | 0.57 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.46 | 0.20 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.21 | 0.38 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: MacKinnon vs O'Reilly
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
MacKinnon 28G 35A, 181 SOG · O'Reilly 13G 25A, 97 SOG
MacKinnon's offensive zone 50–60 · neutral 70–96 · MacKinnon's defensive zone 33–51 (2017-18 to 2025-26)
MacKinnon blocked 2 of O'Reilly's shots; O'Reilly blocked 8 of MacKinnon's.
On the ice against each other (MacKinnon's side)
41:15 at 5-on-5 over 4 games, 2025-26, from MacKinnon's side
- Shot attempts
- 44–49
- 47.3%
- Expected goals
- 1.5–2.3
- 39.9%
- Goals
- 1–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | MacKinnon | O'Reilly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | COL 3–7 NSH | 0G 1A 4S | 3G 1A 6S |
| 2025-12-13 | COL 4–2 NSH | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-12-09 | COL 3–4 NSH | 0G 2A 7S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-11-22 | COL 3–0 NSH | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-02-22 | COL 1–2 NSH | 0G 0A 8S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-12-14 | COL 5–2 NSH | 2G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-11-11 | COL 3–2 NSH | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-11-02 | COL 2–5 NSH | 1G 1A 6S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2024-03-30 | COL 7–4 NSH | 2G 2A 5S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-03-02 | COL 1–5 NSH | 1G 0A 4S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2023-11-20 | COL 3–4 NSH | 0G 2A 8S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2022-11-14 | COL 2–3 STL | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 1A 3S |
Latest 12 of 40 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Nathan MacKinnon
2games (1 left)
3.2proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAK
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL3.2 pts
Ryan O'Reilly
2games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Thu, Oct 1 vs MIN
- Sat, Oct 3 vs DAL2.0 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Nathan MacKinnon or Ryan O'Reilly in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ryan O'Reilly's 1.90. MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; O'Reilly had 74 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Nathan MacKinnon or Ryan O'Reilly?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 29 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have MacKinnon and O'Reilly done against each other?
- In 40 games against each other in our data, MacKinnon's team went 21–19. MacKinnon had 63 points (28 goals) and O'Reilly had 38 (13 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, MacKinnon or O'Reilly?
- Against each other, MacKinnon has won 153 and O'Reilly 207 of their 360 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →