Edgehalla

Who to start · 2025-26

Nathan MacKinnon vs Tomas Hertl

Nathan MacKinnonNathan MacKinnonAvalanche · CentrevsTomas HertlTomas HertlGolden Knights · Centre

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tomas Hertl's 1.88.

MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games.

This week MacKinnon has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Hertl has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project MacKinnon for 2.2 ESPN points to Hertl's 2.0.

Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 24 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.

MacKinnon's biggest edges: On-ice PDO 1054, Goals above expected +4.3, Plus/minus +57.

Hertl's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.010, Ascension score 61, Faceoff win % 57.8%.

Head to head on the dot, Hertl leads MacKinnon 106–56.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 2 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 8 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

Nathan MacKinnon

3.32

fantasy points per game

Tomas Hertl

1.88

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, Nathan MacKinnon has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromMacKinnonHertl
Goals (+2)1.490.63
Assists (+1)0.870.37
Power-play points (+0.5)0.210.17
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.000.00
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.460.27
Hits (+0.1)0.090.14
Blocks (+0.5)0.210.30

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head: MacKinnon vs Hertl

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

MacKinnonHertl
21Team record in 37 meetings16
45Points in those games33

MacKinnon 14G 31A, 171 SOG · Hertl 14G 19A, 95 SOG

56Faceoffs against each other106

MacKinnon's offensive zone 19–33 · neutral 24–46 · MacKinnon's defensive zone 13–27 (2017-18 to 2025-26)

1Hits on each other3
0Shots blocked by the other3

MacKinnon blocked 0 of Hertl's shots; Hertl blocked 3 of MacKinnon's.

1Penalties drawn off the other1

On the ice against each other (MacKinnon's side)

11:23 at 5-on-5 over 4 games, 2025-26, from MacKinnon's side

Shot attempts
18–9
66.7%
Expected goals
1.0–0.1
88.5%
Goals
1–0

Games against each other

Games between Nathan MacKinnon and Tomas Hertl
DateScoreMacKinnonHertl
2026-05-26 · POCOL 1–2 VGK0G 0A 2S0G 0A 3S
2026-05-24 · POCOL 3–5 VGK0G 1A 5S1G 1A 3S
2026-05-22 · POCOL 1–3 VGK0G 0A 1S0G 0A 1S
2026-05-20 · POCOL 2–4 VGK0G 1A 3S0G 1A 1S
2026-04-11COL 2–3 VGK0G 0A 6S0G 1A 3S
2025-12-27COL 6–5 VGK1G 2A 9S0G 1A 1S
2025-10-31COL 4–2 VGK0G 1A 2S1G 1A 2S
2024-11-27COL 2–1 VGK0G 0A 10S0G 0A 3S
2024-10-09COL 4–8 VGK0G 2A 4S0G 1A 0S
2024-04-14COL 3–4 VGK0G 1A 4S1G 0A 5S
2023-12-31COL 3–1 SJS0G 2A 3S1G 0A 1S
2023-12-17COL 6–2 SJS2G 2A 4S2G 0A 5S

Latest 12 of 37 meetings.

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

MacKinnonHertl

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

Nathan MacKinnon

2games (1 left)

2.2proj. ESPN pts

  • Wed, Sep 30 vs LAK
    Opp allows the most FP to CLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs STL2.2 pts
    Opp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)

Tomas Hertl

3games (1 left)

2.0proj. ESPN pts

  • Tue, Sep 29 vs CHI
    Opp allows 8th-most FP to CLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
  • Fri, Oct 2 vs ANA
    Opp allows 9th-most FP to CLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
  • Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.0 pts
    Opp allows 6th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Nathan MacKinnon or Tomas Hertl in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tomas Hertl's 1.88. MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Nathan MacKinnon or Tomas Hertl?
On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 24 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have MacKinnon and Hertl done against each other?
In 37 games against each other in our data, MacKinnon's team went 21–16. MacKinnon had 45 points (14 goals) and Hertl had 33 (14 goals).
Who wins more faceoffs, MacKinnon or Hertl?
Against each other, MacKinnon has won 56 and Hertl 106 of their 162 head-to-head draws.

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →