Who to start · 2025-26
Sebastian Aho vs Tom Wilson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Sebastian Aho's 2.01.
Aho had 80 points in 79 games; Wilson had 62 in 72 games.
This week Aho has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Wilson has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Wilson for 2.3 ESPN points to Aho's 2.2.
Sebastian Aho has the better number in 18 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Aho's biggest edges: Offensive-zone start % 68.8%, Faceoffs won 596, Offensive-zone time 48.2%.
Wilson's biggest edges: Blocked shots 53, Goals above expected +2.0, On-ice PDO 1017.
Head to head on the dot, Wilson leads Aho 9–1.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 6 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Sebastian Aho
2.01
fantasy points per game
Tom Wilson
2.24
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Tom Wilson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Aho | Wilson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.72 | 0.78 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.59 | 0.48 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.07 | 0.25 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.16 | 0.44 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Aho vs Wilson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Aho 13G 17A, 103 SOG · Wilson 8G 10A, 61 SOG
Aho's offensive zone 1–6 · neutral 0–2 · Aho's defensive zone 0–1 (2018-19 to 2025-26)
Aho blocked 2 of Wilson's shots; Wilson blocked 1 of Aho's.
On the ice against each other (Aho's side)
19:22 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Aho's side
- Shot attempts
- 29–20
- 59.2%
- Expected goals
- 1.5–1.3
- 52.7%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Aho | Wilson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | CAR 2–5 WSH | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2026-01-31 | CAR 3–4 WSH | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-12-11 | CAR 3–2 WSH | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-11-11 | CAR 1–4 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-05-15 · PO | CAR 3–1 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-05-12 · PO | CAR 5–2 WSH | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-05-10 · PO | CAR 4–0 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-05-08 · PO | CAR 1–3 WSH | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2025-05-06 · PO | CAR 2–1 WSH | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-04-10 | CAR 4–5 WSH | 0G 1A 2S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2025-04-02 | CAR 5–1 WSH | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-12-20 | CAR 1–3 WSH | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
Latest 12 of 39 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Sebastian Aho
3games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs WSHOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ PHIB2B2.2 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to CSchedule edge −8.7 win%vs Joseph Woll (.899)
Tom Wilson
2games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ CAROpp allows 11th-most FP to RWLikely vs Brandon Bussi (.895)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ TBLB2B2.3 ptsOpp allows the most FP to RWSchedule edge −13.3 win%vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Sebastian Aho or Tom Wilson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Sebastian Aho's 2.01. Aho had 80 points in 79 games; Wilson had 62 in 72 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Sebastian Aho or Tom Wilson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Sebastian Aho leads in 18 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Aho and Wilson done against each other?
- In 39 games against each other in our data, Aho's team went 18–21. Aho had 30 points (13 goals) and Wilson had 18 (8 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Aho or Wilson?
- Against each other, Aho has won 1 and Wilson 9 of their 10 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →