Who to start · 2025-26
Sebastian Aho vs Tomas Hertl
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Sebastian Aho projects to 2.01 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tomas Hertl's 1.88.
Aho had 80 points in 79 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games.
This week Aho has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Hertl has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Aho for 2.2 ESPN points to Hertl's 2.0.
Sebastian Aho has the better number in 21 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Aho's biggest edges: Forecheck xG /60 0.39, Plus/minus +11, 20+ mph bursts 128.
Hertl's biggest edges: Ascension score 61, Blocked shots 45, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.010.
Head to head on the dot, Hertl leads Aho 24–22.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 6 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Sebastian Aho
2.01
fantasy points per game
Tomas Hertl
1.88
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Sebastian Aho has the edge.
| Points per game from | Aho | Hertl |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.59 | 0.37 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.16 | 0.30 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Aho vs Hertl
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Aho 8G 10A, 57 SOG · Hertl 7G 9A, 41 SOG
Aho's offensive zone 13–10 · neutral 4–7 · Aho's defensive zone 5–7 (2017-18 to 2025-26)
Aho blocked 1 of Hertl's shots; Hertl blocked 1 of Aho's.
On the ice against each other (Aho's side)
29:16 at 5-on-5 over 8 games, 2025-26, from Aho's side
- Shot attempts
- 30–20
- 60.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.9–0.8
- 53.0%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Aho | Hertl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 · PO | CAR 3–0 VGK | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2026-06-11 · PO | CAR 4–2 VGK | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2026-06-09 · PO | CAR 5–3 VGK | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2026-06-06 · PO | CAR 4–5 VGK | 0G 2A 0S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2026-06-04 · PO | CAR 4–3 VGK | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2026-06-02 · PO | CAR 4–5 VGK | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2025-10-28 | CAR 3–6 VGK | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2025-10-20 | CAR 1–4 VGK | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-01-17 | CAR 3–2 VGK | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2024-11-11 | CAR 5–2 VGK | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-10-27 | CAR 3–0 SJS | 0G 2A 4S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-01-27 | CAR 5–4 SJS | 2G 0A 9S | 0G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 21 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Sebastian Aho
3games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs WSHOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ PHIB2B2.2 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to CSchedule edge −8.7 win%vs Joseph Woll (.899)
Tomas Hertl
3games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 8th-most FP to CLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANAOpp allows 9th-most FP to CLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.0 ptsOpp allows 6th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Sebastian Aho or Tomas Hertl in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Sebastian Aho projects to 2.01 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tomas Hertl's 1.88. Aho had 80 points in 79 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Sebastian Aho or Tomas Hertl?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Sebastian Aho leads in 21 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Aho and Hertl done against each other?
- In 21 games against each other in our data, Aho's team went 12–9. Aho had 18 points (8 goals) and Hertl had 16 (7 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Aho or Hertl?
- Against each other, Aho has won 22 and Hertl 24 of their 46 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →