Who to start · 2025-26
Tom Wilson vs Vladimir Tarasenko
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Vladimir Tarasenko's 1.52.
Wilson had 62 points in 72 games; Tarasenko had 47 in 75 games.
This week Wilson has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Tarasenko has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Wilson for 2.3 ESPN points to Tarasenko's 1.2.
Tom Wilson has the better number in 27 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Wilson's biggest edges: Penalty minutes 117, Fenwick 55.8%, Corsi 53.7%.
Tarasenko's biggest edges: Net penalties drawn /60 +0.37, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.018, Goals above expected +4.1.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Tom Wilson
2.20
fantasy points per game
Vladimir Tarasenko
1.52
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Tom Wilson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Wilson | Tarasenko |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.83 | 0.61 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.25 | 0.08 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.37 | 0.22 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Wilson vs Tarasenko
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Wilson 4G 4A, 31 SOG · Tarasenko 7G 5A, 32 SOG
On the ice against each other (Wilson's side)
3:10 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Wilson's side
- Shot attempts
- 2–2
- 50.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.1–0.2
- 22.3%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Wilson | Tarasenko |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-16 | WSH 0–5 MIN | 0G 0A 4S | 2G 1A 4S |
| 2025-10-17 | WSH 5–1 MIN | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-03-18 | WSH 4–1 DET | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-03-07 | WSH 5–2 DET | 1G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-12-29 | WSH 2–4 DET | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-02-26 | WSH 6–3 OTT | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2023-10-18 | WSH 1–6 OTT | 0G 1A 2S | 1G 1A 1S |
| 2023-04-02 | WSH 2–5 NYR | 0G 0A 4S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2023-03-14 | WSH 3–5 NYR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2023-02-25 | WSH 6–3 NYR | 1G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2019-10-02 | WSH 3–2 STL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2019-01-14 | WSH 1–4 STL | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 1A 2S |
Latest 12 of 14 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Tom Wilson
2games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ CAROpp allows 5th-fewest FP to RWLikely vs Brandon Bussi (.895)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ TBLB2B2.3 ptsOpp allows the most FP to RWSchedule edge −13.3 win%Likely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
Vladimir Tarasenko
2games (1 left)
1.2proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NSHOpp allows 11th-fewest FP to RWLikely vs Juuse Saros (.893)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs BOS1.2 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to RWSchedule edge +12.8 win%Likely vs Michael DiPietro (1.000)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Tom Wilson or Vladimir Tarasenko in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Vladimir Tarasenko's 1.52. Wilson had 62 points in 72 games; Tarasenko had 47 in 75 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Tom Wilson or Vladimir Tarasenko?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tom Wilson leads in 27 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Wilson and Tarasenko done against each other?
- In 14 games against each other in our data, Wilson's team went 8–6. Wilson had 8 points (4 goals) and Tarasenko had 12 (7 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →