Draw Duel
Pavol Regenda faceoff stats, 2025-26
SJS · L · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
—
Only 23 draws in the last four seasons: too few for a rating.
2025-26 FO%
64.7%
11 won of 17 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
57.1% / 71.4%
7 strong-side, 7 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where Regenda wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 and 2023-24 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 8 | 3 | 37.5% |
| OZ right | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Centre | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
| NZ left (def.) | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| DZ left | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| DZ right | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R33.5%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L34.1%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R34.4%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R34.9%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L35.0%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L35.3%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L54.7%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L54.4%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L53.2%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L51.5%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L51.2%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R51.0%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 64.7% 17 | 66.7% 9 | 57.1% 7 | 100.0% 1 | 55.6% 9 | 60.0% 5 | 100.0% 3 | 57.1% 7 | 71.4% 7 |
| 2023-24 | 16.7% 6 | 16.7% 6 | — 0 | — 0 | 25.0% 4 | 0.0% 2 | — 0 | 25.0% 4 | 0.0% 1 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Trocheck | 1–1 | 50.0% | 34.5% | 34.6% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Oskar Sundqvist | 0–2 | 0.0% | 47.4% | 47.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Alex Laferriere | 1–1 | 50.0% | 48.2% | 48.2% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Jason Dickinson | 1–1 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Connor Bedard | 0–1 | 0.0% | 48.1% | 48.0% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| Matthew Wood | 0–1 | 0.0% | 51.9% | 51.8% | a bit unusual (z -1.0) |
| Kevin Stenlund | 0–1 | 0.0% | 38.1% | 38.1% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Connor McMichael | 1–0 | 100.0% | 44.8% | 44.9% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Brayden Point | 1–0 | 100.0% | 45.1% | 45.2% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Wyatt Johnston | 0–1 | 0.0% | 42.9% | 42.8% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| J.T. Compher | 1–0 | 100.0% | 43.5% | 43.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Dylan Larkin | 1–0 | 100.0% | 31.5% | 31.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.5) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | @ NSH | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-03-19 | vs BUF | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-02-02 | @ CHI | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 2026-01-29 | @ EDM | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-23 | vs NYR | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-01-16 | @ DET | 3 | 3 | 100.0% |
| 2026-01-10 | vs DAL | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-07 | @ LAK | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-01-03 | vs TBL | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2025-12-03 | vs WSH | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Pavol Regenda's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Pavol Regenda's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Pavol Regenda win tonight?
When Pavol Regenda has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Pavol Regenda better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.